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Developers are finally building in SF.. http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/real-estate/2016/04/s-f-s-10-largest-residential-projects-of-2016-will.htm

Developers are finally building in SF.. http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/real-estate/2016/04/s-f-s-10-largest-residential-projects-of-2016-will.html http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/real-estate/201... http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2016/04/san-franciscos-hub-heights-2-0-and-potential-for-a-600-foot-tower.html http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2016/04/san-franciscos-hu... This is very good news, my prediction is that this wave of supply is going to reduce the prices for a while. There is actually still a lot of space in SOMA/Mission Bay/Central Waterfront to build. New construction is all going to be condos rather than single family homes, people who want to live in single family homes and drive to Costco on the weekends (nothing wrong with that) will continue to move to Seattle or Portland. Money is flocking to SF from all over the world through VC companies and mutual funds, still. It used to be VCs with previous exits who already live in the region but in the last 2 years a lot of dumb money coming in. At some point in the next 5 years Uber, Airbnb, Pinterest, Lyft, Dropbox, Slack, Palantir and Stripe are going to have exits, even if 3 out of 8 lives up to their potentials these exits are going to create a lot of potential home buyers. Facebook, Google, Apple and Netflix (yes, netflix) are going to continue growing their empires. If SF's city officials can pull it off, with the increased investments in public transportation eventually San Francisco is going to become a global A+ city. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_city https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_city) Only a 'black swan' event can stop SF's medium term growth. We already had a 'black swan' event in tech in the recent history, burst of 2000, everyone is expecting a similar story here. It's the nature of 'black swan' events that if people are already expecting things to fall apart, the magnitude is much less. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory)

fchollet 11y ago
> If SF's city officials can pull it off, with the increased investments in public transportation eventually San Francisco is going to become a global A+ city. This is the most hilarious comment I've read on HN in a long time.
- scurvy 11y ago
  They must not know SF's history...
scurvy 11y ago
There's huge swaths of single family homes in SF; just not in the areas of soul-less high rise hotel/condos that young tech people seem to prefer. You do realize there's a Costco in Soma right? It's swamped with people. I go, and I live in Russian Hill. I agree with the rest of your statement, but they're only building in a very small part of SF and catering to a narrow demographic. Soma 1br condo prices can implode, but RH and Pacific Heights 2-3BR places will only go up. Don't buy the nicest place in a bad neighborhood. Buy the most modest place in a nice neighborhood. Let everyone else bring up your home's worth.
- gorkemyurt 11y ago
  Yep I agree about RH and Pacific Heights. I don't think its a small part of SF, that's the thing.. Central Waterfront and Mission Bay has so much potential. http://www.pier70sf.com http://www.pier70sf.com http://missionrock.org http://missionrock.org http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/real-estate/2015/01/dogpatch-condos-housing-development-sf-avalonbay.html http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/real-estate/201... Central SOMA up north and hunters point in the south, eastern neighborhoods will add 50k+ residents to SF in the next 10 years http://208.121.200.84/ftp/files/Citywide/Central_Corridor/Central-Corridor-Plan-DRAFT-FINAL-web.pdf http://208.121.200.84/ftp/files/Citywide/Central_Corridor/Ce...
techstrategist 11y ago
There's another nuance to black swan events, though. I don't recall whether this was from BS or Antifragile, but the maximum expected magnitude of an event such as a bubble pop would generally be considered to be the previous max. If the next event were 1.5x-10x larger, it would still be a black swan and could overwhelm the reasonable preparations that were made in anticipation of a repeat.
Retric 11y ago
FED raising interest rates is going to drastically lower inflation adjusted housing prices. This can be a good thing for people that owe a lot of money at a fixed rate or new buyers, but variable rate mortgages will crush some people.
rconti 11y ago
Huge towers going up all over downtown Redwood City, too.
wwweston 11y ago
> This is very good news, my prediction is that this wave of supply is going to reduce the prices for a while. My prediction is that it may flatten prices (or slow the increase), but the buildout in supply will not reduce prices... because as far as I can tell, housing costs don't fall with supply increases, only from demand drops. (Anyone know if there's a prediction market for this?)

fchollet 11y ago

> If SF's city officials can pull it off, with the increased investments in public transportation eventually San Francisco is going to become a global A+ city. This is the most hilarious comment I've read on HN in a long time.

scurvy 11y ago
They must not know SF's history...

scurvy 11y ago

There's huge swaths of single family homes in SF; just not in the areas of soul-less high rise hotel/condos that young tech people seem to prefer. You do realize there's a Costco in Soma right? It's swamped with people. I go, and I live in Russian Hill. I agree with the rest of your statement, but they're only building in a very small part of SF and catering to a narrow demographic. Soma 1br condo prices can implode, but RH and Pacific Heights 2-3BR places will only go up. Don't buy the nicest place in a bad neighborhood. Buy the most modest place in a nice neighborhood. Let everyone else bring up your home's worth.

gorkemyurt 11y ago
Yep I agree about RH and Pacific Heights. I don't think its a small part of SF, that's the thing.. Central Waterfront and Mission Bay has so much potential. http://www.pier70sf.com http://www.pier70sf.com http://missionrock.org http://missionrock.org http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/real-estate/2015/01/dogpatch-condos-housing-development-sf-avalonbay.html http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/real-estate/201... Central SOMA up north and hunters point in the south, eastern neighborhoods will add 50k+ residents to SF in the next 10 years http://208.121.200.84/ftp/files/Citywide/Central_Corridor/Central-Corridor-Plan-DRAFT-FINAL-web.pdf http://208.121.200.84/ftp/files/Citywide/Central_Corridor/Ce...

techstrategist 11y ago

There's another nuance to black swan events, though. I don't recall whether this was from BS or Antifragile, but the maximum expected magnitude of an event such as a bubble pop would generally be considered to be the previous max. If the next event were 1.5x-10x larger, it would still be a black swan and could overwhelm the reasonable preparations that were made in anticipation of a repeat.

Retric 11y ago

FED raising interest rates is going to drastically lower inflation adjusted housing prices. This can be a good thing for people that owe a lot of money at a fixed rate or new buyers, but variable rate mortgages will crush some people.

rconti 11y ago

Huge towers going up all over downtown Redwood City, too.

wwweston 11y ago

> This is very good news, my prediction is that this wave of supply is going to reduce the prices for a while. My prediction is that it may flatten prices (or slow the increase), but the buildout in supply will not reduce prices... because as far as I can tell, housing costs don't fall with supply increases, only from demand drops. (Anyone know if there's a prediction market for this?)