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It's always hard to believe the numbers, but I trust Redfin since I used them to purchase my home. I think the problem is comparing what's turn key and not. For
by ryanSrich 11y ago
It's always hard to believe the numbers, but I trust Redfin since I used them to purchase my home. I think the problem is comparing what's turn key and not. For example they say:
> Portland, OR had the nation’s highest price growth, rising 16.1% since last year to $325,000...
The problem is you're fighting 100's of people for that one house in Portland that is livable at $325,000. Most houses that cheap need a ton of work.
SF on the other hand is just seeing their ceiling come into play. Only so many people can justify raising a family and purchasing a home in The Bay. Why not change jobs to Seattle or Portland and make around the same money, but spend half on a house? I think that's what we're seeing.
- tortilla 11y agoA bit off topic, but how was your experience with Redfin? I'm thinking of using them.
- gedy 11y agoI used them and it was excellent - exactly what I'd want as a tech-comfortable person. It's not the best for people who want a person to meet with in person or talk to frequently on the phone. Also note that Real Estate agents on the other end of the transition can be a bit annoyed by you using RedFin.
- wyldfire 11y agoWhat is it? Some kind of real estate brokerage service? It's not merely a research site like zillow or trulia? EDIT: ok, it looks like it's a real estate agency that's salaried instead of commission -- err, scratch that, they take a less-than-industry average commission. Sounds a little disruptive.
- mrgriscom 11y agoRedfin as a company takes a lower commission -- more precisely, they refund about a third of their commission to you. Agents themselves are paid a bonus based solely on client satisfaction surveys. At least that's how they said it worked when I used them in 2013.
- aetherson 11y agoI'm not the previous author, but I bought my home (in SF) with Redfin about 2.5 years ago, and our experience was very good. It felt to us like all the good parts of having a real estate agent and none of the bad parts. We wanted to just browse a webpage for homes ourselves, though (and then have someone help us evaluate and make an offer on them). If you want someone to go out and find houses and offer them to you, it's not the service for you.
- ryanSrich 11y agoAs a buyer I would assume it's pretty similar to other agents. The only big difference is that they contribute some stipend to your closing costs. So it's a bit cheaper for both parties (as they take a smaller commission as well) to go with Redfin.
- shimon 11y agoMinor clarification: when we bought through Redfin in 2010, the rebate came as a check a week or two after closing, not a contribution to closing costs. Adding a transaction to the already complex closing process would not have been worth the benefit of getting the money a bit sooner.
- marincounty 11y agoI don't know anything about this company. I have an idea what market they are trying to crack. I can't believe it's taken this long. I've always felt paying a Realtor 3% on the biggest item most of us will buy in our lives is crazy. I just don't know what they do for that commission. I don't know what makes one successful--just because he/she sold more than the others? Pay them more because they know how to network? I missed getting my RE Brokers license a few years ago. I procrastinated. The Realestate lobby got to Jerry Brown, and got their bill though. A rediculious bill that just made it more difficult to get a license, essentially cutting down on supply. Enough said. To get a licence. It's about eight courses, and couple of years of doubious experience, and a simple test. Now what does a good Realtor do earn that huge financial jackpot when they sell/buy you a house? I haven't a clue. Maybe a good omissions/errors insurance policy? I don't have a clue. I've been told to pay full commission, and you will see what they bring. Then again, this sounds like something the King of Realestate came up with? So, to all you young, hungry developers. I really believe the Realestate Agent is long past it's due date. I would love to see a safe way to exclude them, and their commissions form the home/commercial buying experience. A fool proof way? I will now look into Redfin. If it's half what I believe it to be; there's much room for competition?
- beachstartup 11y agoyou pay them a commission because real estate deals can get ugly, fast, especially in competitive markets like in the coastal US. a good agent has seen it all before, knows what to do when the seller or buyer starts making threats or is trying to angle the deal somehow. he knows what lawyers to call, what finance people to call, and yes, networks and has relationships with agents to get you properties that haven't hit the market yet. out of my peer group who has ever bought property, i'd say a good third of them had some kind of issue during the deal that required an expert to mitigate. of course a shitty real estate agent isn't worth their pay - but that goes for any job. but otherwise, it's the same old shit -- things are going great, what am i paying you for? things are going shitty, what am i paying you for?
- kale 11y agoI have a great real estate agent. He knew the math equations that HUD used to price their homes at auction, and what percentage of that price they'd take. Our first house (bought in 2008), he suggested that if we waited to make a bid on a house until a certain day, the price would drop, and they'd take 80% of the asking price. He was correct and we made a lot of money by selling when the market came back. On the next house, he looked at the roof and knew that the house probably had a recalled shingle on it, and we couldn't even get insurance on the house with that shingle. The homeowner was stuck between replacing the shingles or taking a chance that the next buyer would have less attentive real estate/home inspectors. Twice I have greatly benefited financially by his expertise. I'm not paying him a lot for his services necessarily (although he's great at it), I'm paying him for his expertise.
- kelukelugames 11y agoYes please buy your house from Redfin so they can IPO and I can sell my worthless options. Besides working there, I also bought my house from Redfin. They tend to do less handholding because each Redfin agent handles more clients at a time than a traditional agent. However, if you are a first time buyer then they will provide more attention. But if you use the Internet for searches then you probably don't need and might even be annoyed by traditional agents.
- eanzenberg 11y agoTook a quick look and their price estimations are dubious at best. In the complex I live in, comparing 2 condos of exact layout and sq footage, same view, sold 4 weeks apart, one on the 2nd floor the other on the 4th: the 2nd floor unit's price 'grew' $20k while the 4th floor unit 'grew' $500. Great job on 2 orders of magnitude error.
- zippergz 11y agoThe price estimation is not their primary purpose (unlike Zillow, who use their "Zestimate" as a main selling point).
- massysett 11y agoI bought with Redfin and my agent was fantastic. She worked much harder to close deals than did the full-commission agents working the sales (we made offers on two properties before closing on the third.) However Redfin is not for you if you want an agent driving you around, suggesting "maybe you should look at this house," giving you inside tips like "oh, my friend at another brokerage has a great house that will be listed tomorrow," etc. Redfin is good if you don't mind driving the shopping process and you just want someone to close out the deal. I can say that I saw a lot of really crappy agents selling houses. Most agents I saw absolutely do not deserve whatever commission they get. I do not think Redfin is as good as the best traditional agent. However I do think an average Redfin agent is probably much better than an average traditional agent.
- pascal1usa 11y agoYup. And, as vc dollars start drying up and companies get pressure to become profitable again, employers will figure out where to go: out of San Francisco.
- lsc 11y agoSo, my impression is that the companies that pay enough that you can actually afford to think about buying in SF are the large and profitable companies... from what I've seen, vc-dependent startups pay dramatically less. Of course, most of those profitable company jobs are in the south bay, not in SF proper, but hell, if I could buy one of those mini-condos in sf for a quarter mill, I'd jump on it. I'm trying to say that I'm not sure that the vc-dependent will have as much effect on the market overall as you say, unless the slowdown progresses to the point where it starts pulling down the big guys. (which isn't impossible. someone put forth the theory that a lot of the highest-margin advertising dollars come from said vc-dependent firms, and if those went away, everyone would pay a lot less for advertising, which would dramatically effect the big, profitable employers around here. I would rate that theory as plausible, but not certain.)
- morgante 11y agoThey form the same labor market though. Fewer startups puts less pressure on the price for hiring engineers. You don't have to many any assumptions about advertising dollars (the vast majority of which come from outside SV) to see how a startup slowdown will also have an impact on all engineering salaries.
- lsc 11y ago> They form the same labor market though. Fewer startups puts less pressure on the price for hiring engineers. Yeah. I guess two questions. 1. how much of the market for Engineers is vc-dependent startups? My impression is that they have an outsized PR footprint for the number of jobs there. 2. If I'm right that they get paid less, (which is my experience and belief, but I have no hard data to back up my assertion) are the engineers working at startups mostly just entry-level folks? (this is kind of my impression, or at least they seem to be way less experienced than folks you see at established companies, though again, I don't have hard data.) I mean, inarguably, it will have some effect, but how much depends a lot on those two factors.
- jonnathanson 11y ago"SF on the other hand is just seeing their ceiling come into play. Only so many people can justify raising a family and purchasing a home in The Bay. Why not change jobs to Seattle or Portland and make around the same money, but spend half on a house? I think that's what we're seeing." It's more than just tech workers. SF real estate prices have been influenced significantly by foreign speculation (especially from China). As the Chinese market slows down, so too does speculative offshore real estate investment. And these were buyers with virtually unlimited purses, ready to drop all-cash well north of asking prices. (Full disclosure: I own a modest condo in SF, and when Chinese speculation was at its frothiest, I would get hand-delivered letters from real estate agents on more or less a quarterly basis. They would state that XYZ buyer in China is willing to purchase my property, sight unseen, and they would ask me to get in touch if interested.)
- soperj 11y agoWhy isn't this drying up in Canada then?
- jonnathanson 11y agoI know basically nothing about the Canadian market, or the various factors (regulatory, tax-related, currency-driven, or otherwise) that might make it more or less attractive to foreign investment than the market in SF. I also know very little about which types of foreign buyers consider Canadian real estate attractive. Since I'm admittedly pretty ignorant of that market, I honestly can't say. The best I can tell you is that, while foreign demand in the aggregate might be global, there are many local factors that determine whether a particular market is or is not the recipient of significant investment at any given time. We can't assume a global/universal phenomenon applies itself evenly across all localities. Indeed, many of these locales might be substitutes for one another at different points in time and under various macroeconomic circumstances.
- turnip1979 11y agoMy hypothesis is that the China/hk dollar peg is to blame. Edit: to clarify, the Chinese yuan and hkd are pegged to the USD. The recent strength of the USD has caused problems for China ...some people thing the peg will fail. If you are one of these people and you have lots of cash in China, you want to move the money out of the country and into a different asset class. The recent weakness of the Canadian dollar has made parking money in Canada very reasonable via buying of property. As a poor Canadian who owns no property, I'm pretty much outpriced of the real estate market in the city where I was raised .. with the exception of a condo ...those are being unconstru ted at an unbelievable pace. People I meet seem to own 2-3 condos a piece. Everyone thinks they'll just rent them out. I think we are almost guaranteed to have a condo collapse in the near future.
- tmaly 11y agoThere is always going to be high demand for houses that are close to the large job centers. How strong that demand is will be partly influenced by the economy. The housing boom we saw in the mid 2000s was a bit of a fluke due to asset inflation that arose from the Feds ZIRP. One could argue that the current asset appreciation we are seeing from 2011 to present is another unintended consequence of the ZIRP.
- davidw 11y agoRelevant to SF housing and Portland: http://www.oregonlive.com/front-porch/index.ssf/2016/04/yes_in_my_back_yard_a_housing.html http://www.oregonlive.com/front-porch/index.ssf/2016/04/yes_... - an interview with SFYimby.
- kyledrake 11y agoAn observation I've also had is that not many people factor in time, maintenance and repair costs when considering Portland homes. I've looked at $350k houses here that are complete junk without another $50-200k in (I'm not just talking kitchen remodels, just as often I see serious roof and water damage problems), and therefore really are priced at $450-600k. Real estate brokers have been.. less than stellar about disclosing some of these issues to buyers. One place I looked at was listed at $375k, went for over $450k and had in the house, no shit, uninsulated knob-and-tube wiring going into a fusebox model from the 60s that was recalled 25 years ago for electrical issues. Better to get your Will settled before moving in there. When you factor in these hidden costs, things start to look very overpriced around here. I expect that in the next five years there will be a lot of disgruntled owners putting these houses back up at purchase price (or maybe even less) after they get sick of dealing with the problems and start to realize the price tag to fix them. In the interim, the bad news is that Portland is basically out of housing stock at this point too. Expect more rentals and condos in the future.
- showerst 11y agoCounterpoint: Conditions were just like this in DC 7 years ago, and tons of people bought these dilapidated 350k row houses, put 150k into fixing them, then sold them a few years later for 750k+ because demand in the city kept growing. It's not a strategy I'd bet on myself, but it has worked in many cities in the (recent) past.
- ryanSrich 11y agoIt's literally crazy. We bought our house last May and have seen a 45% increase in value (according to online estimators which are usually off by a bit). So far we've lucked out. Our house was built in 1920 and had major work done in 1950, 2005, and again in 2009. Over the past 9 months the only major issue we've had is updating our furnace and heating from oil to natural gas (which ends up saving us money in the long run). I do wonder about many of these flipped houses though. Just one street over I've seen 3 1920's houses flipped in a few weeks and sold for crazy high amounts. These flips have to be mostly cosmetic. They make the interiors look amazing, but the house itself is still shot.
- 11y ago