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Knowing almost nothing about Kobe Bryant (I haven't followed the NBA for years), it looks like there's an interesting trend in 3 point attempts. At any given ye

Knowing almost nothing about Kobe Bryant (I haven't followed the NBA for years), it looks like there's an interesting trend in 3 point attempts. At any given year of his career, the distribution of 3 point shots made compared to other shots made seems fairly balanced, as one might expect. However, the number of attempted 3 point shots (or 3 pointers missed) seems to rise significantly in the latter half of his career. I wonder if there's something to be said about an increase of confidence (deserved or not) behind the 3-point line, and whether that extra point outweighs the increased likelihood of missing as an overall statistic (obviously it could make the difference between winning and losing in a single game). Or perhaps it's indicative of a trend for the NBA overall with more 3 point attempts in recent years. Or I could be seeing something in the data that isn't there.

jonknee 11y ago
Or maybe Kobe got older and had to rely more on the three than driving to the lane.
justinv 11y ago
I think it's primarily health & age. It's less taxing to take shots outside than to try to drive up to much bigger, younger players constantly. I'd also say that as he got older, his athletic ability declined (injuries and age), so in order to continue getting points, he needed to attempt more shots.
hackuser 11y ago
Part of the reason may be that three point shooting has become much more popular in the NBA. Consider it: In many cases, if you shoot from a few steps further back then your reward increases 50%. Current MVP Stephan Curry is the epitome of this trend. Also, driving to the basket, probably his leading alternative, takes speed, strength, and the ability to take a beating. Probably all those abilities declined as he aged.
achompas 11y ago
Great catch. What you're observing is the effect of a new trend (or a nonstationary distribution, if you prefer) wrt. shooting tendencies, as it affects the coaching and strategy of one (star) player. Your suggestion that > [the] extra point outweighs the increased likelihood of missing as an overall statistic is a relatively-recent discovery for people in the NBA: the expected point value of a three-point shot is much higher than the expected point value of a very very long two-point shot.

jonknee 11y ago

Or maybe Kobe got older and had to rely more on the three than driving to the lane.

justinv 11y ago

I think it's primarily health & age. It's less taxing to take shots outside than to try to drive up to much bigger, younger players constantly. I'd also say that as he got older, his athletic ability declined (injuries and age), so in order to continue getting points, he needed to attempt more shots.

hackuser 11y ago

Part of the reason may be that three point shooting has become much more popular in the NBA. Consider it: In many cases, if you shoot from a few steps further back then your reward increases 50%. Current MVP Stephan Curry is the epitome of this trend. Also, driving to the basket, probably his leading alternative, takes speed, strength, and the ability to take a beating. Probably all those abilities declined as he aged.

achompas 11y ago

Great catch. What you're observing is the effect of a new trend (or a nonstationary distribution, if you prefer) wrt. shooting tendencies, as it affects the coaching and strategy of one (star) player. Your suggestion that > [the] extra point outweighs the increased likelihood of missing as an overall statistic is a relatively-recent discovery for people in the NBA: the expected point value of a three-point shot is much higher than the expected point value of a very very long two-point shot.