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Thanks for sharing, this is a great video. It packs a lot. What has happened in the last 8 years is that central banks have attempted to stimulate asset prices
by HappyTypist 11y ago
Thanks for sharing, this is a great video. It packs a lot.
What has happened in the last 8 years is that central banks have attempted to stimulate asset prices at all costs. Real deleveraging is painful and there is no way around it. It has to happen.
Central banks have short circuited the natural process and cut the deleveraging cycle early. In doing so, it has caused the economy to limp on in a heavily burdened, leveraged state without real growth. This is why we still have near zero interest rates, and why Europe and Japan are still on negative rates -- LOWER than the GFC!
Take a look at this chart of mortgage debt: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MDOAH https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MDOAH
You can see that the natural deleveraging cycle has been short circuited by insane injections of money. There is still too much debt to income, and deleveraging is going to happen again.
- wyldfire 11y agoDoes it make sense to normalize that graph against population or productivity growth (maybe a larger economy can support a larger debt)? Even still I doubt growth since 1950 has anywhere near the slope of that graph.
- HappyTypist 11y agoIt absolutely does make sense to adjust for real GDP, but even so you can see the deleveraging process was short circuited.