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This approach should be taken by both camps. By that I mean, use actual real data to drive their point. At the moment all we get from both sides us emotional op

by harel 11y ago

This approach should be taken by both camps. By that I mean, use actual real data to drive their point. At the moment all we get from both sides us emotional opinions and speculation without a single data point to back it up. I am on the fence regarding the eu (and I'm both British and European nationality wise). I want to be persuaded this way or the other but not by emotions. I want cold hard facts and analysis. And I'm getting none of that.

blfr 11y ago
But the interesting argument is whether Britian would benefit in the long term from leaving the EU. This is not addressed by the chance of brexit happening, polling, or currency value over a couple of months. This whole "we looked at the data and what we found surprised us" almost never answers any interesting questions or generates lasting insights.
ed_blackburn 11y ago
Absolutely. It's a head vs heart debate. I understand the heart bit. But the head bit seems open-and-shut to me (remain). I've yet to see a convincing argument to leave that doesn't lead with heart (immigration and the UK innate supremacy over Europe). There is a distinct lack of facts from both camps.
- harel 11y ago
  For me its the opposite. My heart wants to stay, my head resists. To (maybe badly) put it in code, its like a great interface provided by this wonderful company people like to love, but the practical implementations of that interface are so lacking it looks bad on the interface itself.
dageshi 11y ago
There aren't any, it all depends on what kind of deal we'd get after we left and the EU isn't going to pre-negotiate something like that for a host of reasons. I am pro leaving, but I certainly expect a period of turbulence after we leave that'll likely last at least 2-5 years and will probably dampen growth somewhat, but I'm sure we will adapt.
jimmytidey 11y ago
What if it is intrinsically a value-based choice? The empirical evidence is all weak and marginal, this kind of thing doesn't happen often. What will happen to trade? Nobody knows, but if we leave certainly trade agreements will be struck, so it might remain similar. What will it do to immigration? Nobody knows, but there probably won't be a massive change either way. I want to stay in the EU, because I like European ideals, and because in the long run, I think the only way for Britain to defend its geopolitical interests is to coordinate with Europe. I think remaining in the EU is a step toward that, though not necessary or sufficient. I think it's also a diffusion of power, away from Britain's elite controlled media and financial sector. If you are more to the political right, I guess you'll think exactly the opposite. I don't think any empirical evidence is likely to be produced that will inform these types of concerns.
peteretep 11y ago
You're not getting cold hard facts because nobody has any, because nobody can predict the future. That said: the Americans want them to stay in, and that's not out of a sense of nostalgia or jingoism. That's a fact, and it's one worth pondering.
- harel 11y ago
  We might not have facts, but like Bloomberg could magic those numbers out of some form of data collection, polling, modelling etc, both camps can produce models of their own. At this point I'll take anything that qualifies as some form of science-based-approach to the question. If I want emotions - I have plenty of my own regarding then matter and they are still conflicting even within me.
adwf 11y ago
There are no cold, hard facts, no-one has ever left the EU before. We literally have no way of knowing what will happen if we leave. The only hard fact we have is that we know what we've got now and how it works.

by harel 11y ago

blfr 11y ago

But the interesting argument is whether Britian would benefit in the long term from leaving the EU. This is not addressed by the chance of brexit happening, polling, or currency value over a couple of months. This whole "we looked at the data and what we found surprised us" almost never answers any interesting questions or generates lasting insights.

ed_blackburn 11y ago

Absolutely. It's a head vs heart debate. I understand the heart bit. But the head bit seems open-and-shut to me (remain). I've yet to see a convincing argument to leave that doesn't lead with heart (immigration and the UK innate supremacy over Europe). There is a distinct lack of facts from both camps.

harel 11y ago
For me its the opposite. My heart wants to stay, my head resists. To (maybe badly) put it in code, its like a great interface provided by this wonderful company people like to love, but the practical implementations of that interface are so lacking it looks bad on the interface itself.

dageshi 11y ago

There aren't any, it all depends on what kind of deal we'd get after we left and the EU isn't going to pre-negotiate something like that for a host of reasons. I am pro leaving, but I certainly expect a period of turbulence after we leave that'll likely last at least 2-5 years and will probably dampen growth somewhat, but I'm sure we will adapt.

jimmytidey 11y ago

What if it is intrinsically a value-based choice? The empirical evidence is all weak and marginal, this kind of thing doesn't happen often. What will happen to trade? Nobody knows, but if we leave certainly trade agreements will be struck, so it might remain similar. What will it do to immigration? Nobody knows, but there probably won't be a massive change either way. I want to stay in the EU, because I like European ideals, and because in the long run, I think the only way for Britain to defend its geopolitical interests is to coordinate with Europe. I think remaining in the EU is a step toward that, though not necessary or sufficient. I think it's also a diffusion of power, away from Britain's elite controlled media and financial sector. If you are more to the political right, I guess you'll think exactly the opposite. I don't think any empirical evidence is likely to be produced that will inform these types of concerns.

peteretep 11y ago

You're not getting cold hard facts because nobody has any, because nobody can predict the future. That said: the Americans want them to stay in, and that's not out of a sense of nostalgia or jingoism. That's a fact, and it's one worth pondering.

harel 11y ago
We might not have facts, but like Bloomberg could magic those numbers out of some form of data collection, polling, modelling etc, both camps can produce models of their own. At this point I'll take anything that qualifies as some form of science-based-approach to the question. If I want emotions - I have plenty of my own regarding then matter and they are still conflicting even within me.

adwf 11y ago

There are no cold, hard facts, no-one has ever left the EU before. We literally have no way of knowing what will happen if we leave. The only hard fact we have is that we know what we've got now and how it works.