4 ms·

I'm more inclined to trust bookmakers than polls. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result http://w

by philh 11y ago

I'm more inclined to trust bookmakers than polls. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-refe... Currently, the best odds you can get for 'stay' are 4:9, and the best odds for 'leave' are 21:10, which suggests odds of about 2:1 for staying, i.e. Bloomberg is overconfident.

corin_ 11y ago
Sure, after last year we definitely don't want to be too eager to assume that pollsters know what's coming in the UK, and if they fail as spectacularly as in the GE then certainly the bookies may prove to have been more accurate, but then so could me picking chance percentages out of the air and telling people they're my predictions. What makes you think either the bookies or the punters have any clue what accurate pricing would be for that market?
- dageshi 11y ago
  As a counterpoint, referendums should be a lot easier to poll than a general election where FPTP makes things much more complicated. I would think comparing this referendum to the Scottish referendum would be the better comparison.
  - corin_ 11y ago
    You're right in theory, and for sure I wouldn't be shocked if the polls nail this one, but I also wouldn't be shocked if we saw that even without fptp and constituencies there's still enough of a problem with the quality of political polling in the UK to cause big mistakes. Time will tell, I guess.
- philh 11y ago
  The bookies' entire business model is to have a better clue than anyone else about what the accurate pricing would be. If they fail at that, they don't stay in business for very long.
  - corin_ 11y ago
    Only to an extent, ask anyone who's actually worked setting odds for a major bookies (not an area I'm massively familiar with but I've given odds makers the info they used to create prices for markets a few times) and they'll tell you that the company doesn't require them to be bang on every time. Once a market is getting enough action, all they need to do is algorithmically adjust the odds to fit around the bets, and let the house edge do the rest. So essentially if everyone is betting big money on Britain leaving, they will adjust the odds such that that becomes the favourite. Having accurate pricing means that there'll be less margin of error to compensate for in odds changing, and means they (the bookies) are safer against big losses that could have been avoided, so for sure they do their best, but in this case I'd be shocked if doing their best wasn't just taking a combination of what the polls say and what their own betting stats show and merging them together (and while merging in their betting stats will help them set odds that make sense for them, it doesn't help improve the polls' chances of being accurate).
  - Lio 11y ago
    Isn't a bookie's business model based around laying off one side of a bet against the other rather than predicting the future? When you win at long odds, in a perfect system, it's not the bookie's money you're taking it's a share of money collected from the punters who bet on the favourite (minus the bookmaker's margin). The bookie shouldn't care what's likely to happen or not, their pricing should be based on the collective opinions of the punters, right or wrong. > So how does a bookmaker set his original odds? We mentioned before that most of > the early bookmakers will have a number of experts in each sport and they will > come to a decision as to the opening prices. However, it is important to note > that the odds they set are not based on the true probability of the teams > winning, but rather what the general betting public perceive the true > probability to be. https://betting.betfair.com/the-art-of-bookmaking.html https://betting.betfair.com/the-art-of-bookmaking.html
secfirstmd 11y ago
I really wish Intrade.com was still active...It was very flawed in many ways but for some big events (like US elections and its management) it was often extremely accurate.
deleted 11y ago
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elcapitan 11y ago
But the betting odds are not a mere representation of a probability or of the popular perception of one? They also involve the bookmaker trying to attract money on both sides of the line, at least that's my understanding of how they work.

by philh 11y ago

corin_ 11y ago

Sure, after last year we definitely don't want to be too eager to assume that pollsters know what's coming in the UK, and if they fail as spectacularly as in the GE then certainly the bookies may prove to have been more accurate, but then so could me picking chance percentages out of the air and telling people they're my predictions. What makes you think either the bookies or the punters have any clue what accurate pricing would be for that market?

dageshi 11y ago
As a counterpoint, referendums should be a lot easier to poll than a general election where FPTP makes things much more complicated. I would think comparing this referendum to the Scottish referendum would be the better comparison.
- corin_ 11y ago
  You're right in theory, and for sure I wouldn't be shocked if the polls nail this one, but I also wouldn't be shocked if we saw that even without fptp and constituencies there's still enough of a problem with the quality of political polling in the UK to cause big mistakes. Time will tell, I guess.
philh 11y ago
The bookies' entire business model is to have a better clue than anyone else about what the accurate pricing would be. If they fail at that, they don't stay in business for very long.
- corin_ 11y ago
  Only to an extent, ask anyone who's actually worked setting odds for a major bookies (not an area I'm massively familiar with but I've given odds makers the info they used to create prices for markets a few times) and they'll tell you that the company doesn't require them to be bang on every time. Once a market is getting enough action, all they need to do is algorithmically adjust the odds to fit around the bets, and let the house edge do the rest. So essentially if everyone is betting big money on Britain leaving, they will adjust the odds such that that becomes the favourite. Having accurate pricing means that there'll be less margin of error to compensate for in odds changing, and means they (the bookies) are safer against big losses that could have been avoided, so for sure they do their best, but in this case I'd be shocked if doing their best wasn't just taking a combination of what the polls say and what their own betting stats show and merging them together (and while merging in their betting stats will help them set odds that make sense for them, it doesn't help improve the polls' chances of being accurate).
- Lio 11y ago
  Isn't a bookie's business model based around laying off one side of a bet against the other rather than predicting the future? When you win at long odds, in a perfect system, it's not the bookie's money you're taking it's a share of money collected from the punters who bet on the favourite (minus the bookmaker's margin). The bookie shouldn't care what's likely to happen or not, their pricing should be based on the collective opinions of the punters, right or wrong. > So how does a bookmaker set his original odds? We mentioned before that most of > the early bookmakers will have a number of experts in each sport and they will > come to a decision as to the opening prices. However, it is important to note > that the odds they set are not based on the true probability of the teams > winning, but rather what the general betting public perceive the true > probability to be. https://betting.betfair.com/the-art-of-bookmaking.html https://betting.betfair.com/the-art-of-bookmaking.html

secfirstmd 11y ago

I really wish Intrade.com was still active...It was very flawed in many ways but for some big events (like US elections and its management) it was often extremely accurate.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

elcapitan 11y ago

But the betting odds are not a mere representation of a probability or of the popular perception of one? They also involve the bookmaker trying to attract money on both sides of the line, at least that's my understanding of how they work.