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Today’s Brexit Likelihood Score

36 points by yread 11y ago

sarreph 11y ago
I love Bloomberg's flair and talent when it comes to producing rich articles that feel like true web-based projects. In this story, for example, the way a single star falls from the EU crest at the top, and also how the cursor X-axis position acts as a guide for the marker on all charts on the page. However, one chart I take a (small) issue with is their "Today’s Brexit Likelihood Score" chart — surely it is much more intuitive to have the blue ('remain') bar filling up the inverse of what they're currently drawing? I.e. 76.27% filled
- colinramsay 11y ago
  I came here to say this. It's incredibly confusing to the point where I wonder if it's a mistake or bug.
  - sarreph 11y ago
    Yeah, but what makes me think it is a mistake is that they are focussing on a '23% chance of Brexit' figure, using the same blue as the chart line. So perhaps what they really ought to do is just swap the line around.
    - jeroen 11y ago
      They should use the same 3 colours as in the line chart below, and not add undecided to remain.
- morsch 11y ago
  Maybe the color is supposed to reflect the result? It's blue now; if the polls were reversed it'd be red. It'd be much less confusing if they dropped the two dog icons and their labels.
FedexNOLLY 11y ago
nice
ordbajsare 11y ago
Brexit and the fall of the EU is the only way to save Europe.
Kenji 11y ago
It's funny how one might think that being in the EU is voluntary, but as it seems, a country cannot get out, or really, regain any sovereignty, for fear of economic problems. That is like saying "I cannot leave this abusive relationship because I will be lonely and heartbroken." and continue to get punched and scratched every day.
- lmm 11y ago
  Not really - I mean we always have the option to e.g. set all the country's hospitals on fire. It would just be a bad idea. Doesn't mean we "don't control our own hospitals"
- gambiting 11y ago
  If you are in a relationship with someone and you share rent for a flat, breaking up with them would mean that now you live on your own and have to pay 2x as much. It's a serious economic concern, because it might cripple you financially, at least until you find another roommate or move. But, that doesn't mean that you are not free to break up with someone. You just have to be an adult about it and live with the consequences.
  - arrrg 11y ago
    I mean, there is a more subtle point right there. In actual abusive relationships this interdependency is one of the important factors that keeps the abused in the relationship. It’s one of the things that makes abusive relationships so hard to escape and consequently so horrific. That said, interdependency is also just as much a part of non-abusive and completely healthy relationships, i.e. the mere existence of interdependency doesn’t decide whether a relationship is abusive or not. To me the EU and UK relationship is a clearly non-abusive one. I wouldn’t call it healthy, but mostly because the UK is frequently completely disengaged from the process and disinterested in actually being part of the relationship. They could have so much say and power … but they don’t want to. Rather they want to spend all their time worrying and drawing up horror scenarios. I do not want the UK to leave, but I also don’t think that a UK this disengaged is not very productive to have inside the EU.
- 11y ago
monk_e_boy 11y ago
Should we stay or should we go? No one seems to have a clear idea. But the UK is full of middle aged and the older generation who are scared shitless of change. The younger generation (18 - 35) aren't in a position where the EU membership effects them in any tangible way. So we'll end up staying for the wrong reason. Fear. Where I live we get a metric shit tonne of EU funding, but I assume that if we left, the funding would just come from the government. Or we'd get none. Who knows? Who knows if the EU funding will dry up if we stay? We are so powerless it is unreal.
- gambiting 11y ago
  I get the exact opposite impression. The older generation doesn't give a crap about EU, it's not affecting them or their jobs in any way. They are the ones influenced most by the scaremongering of the media. It's the younger people who know that they will lose friends and jobs if Britain leaves, they are connected in the world and understand that implications for the people around them.
  - monk_e_boy 11y ago
    Maybe it's different in cities? I can't talk for those people, but in the smaller towns and villages no one really cares much about our government, let alone the EU. Hackernews audience is a different set of people to those Sun and Daily Mail readers.
- bshimmin 11y ago
  From speaking to people both 18-35 and in older age brackets, I've actually found it's the opposite - the younger generation is relatively impassioned about staying (or mostly indifferent but can't really see why we would leave), and older generations are much more on the fence. In fact, I don't know anyone under 35 who is in favour of Brexit. The older generations, however, start talking about their distrust of Europe, of Germany in particular, and seem to have some vestigial jingoistic pride and feel that Britain is still, or at least can be again, a great nation which can manage perfectly well by itself, thank you very much. (Obviously I've not canvassed everyone in Britain - just about ten or fifteen people I know reasonably well.)
philh 11y ago
I'm more inclined to trust bookmakers than polls. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-refe... Currently, the best odds you can get for 'stay' are 4:9, and the best odds for 'leave' are 21:10, which suggests odds of about 2:1 for staying, i.e. Bloomberg is overconfident.
- corin_ 11y ago
  Sure, after last year we definitely don't want to be too eager to assume that pollsters know what's coming in the UK, and if they fail as spectacularly as in the GE then certainly the bookies may prove to have been more accurate, but then so could me picking chance percentages out of the air and telling people they're my predictions. What makes you think either the bookies or the punters have any clue what accurate pricing would be for that market?
  - dageshi 11y ago
    As a counterpoint, referendums should be a lot easier to poll than a general election where FPTP makes things much more complicated. I would think comparing this referendum to the Scottish referendum would be the better comparison.
    - corin_ 11y ago
      You're right in theory, and for sure I wouldn't be shocked if the polls nail this one, but I also wouldn't be shocked if we saw that even without fptp and constituencies there's still enough of a problem with the quality of political polling in the UK to cause big mistakes. Time will tell, I guess.
  - philh 11y ago
    The bookies' entire business model is to have a better clue than anyone else about what the accurate pricing would be. If they fail at that, they don't stay in business for very long.
harel 11y ago
This approach should be taken by both camps. By that I mean, use actual real data to drive their point. At the moment all we get from both sides us emotional opinions and speculation without a single data point to back it up. I am on the fence regarding the eu (and I'm both British and European nationality wise). I want to be persuaded this way or the other but not by emotions. I want cold hard facts and analysis. And I'm getting none of that.
- blfr 11y ago
  But the interesting argument is whether Britian would benefit in the long term from leaving the EU. This is not addressed by the chance of brexit happening, polling, or currency value over a couple of months. This whole "we looked at the data and what we found surprised us" almost never answers any interesting questions or generates lasting insights.
- ed_blackburn 11y ago
  Absolutely. It's a head vs heart debate. I understand the heart bit. But the head bit seems open-and-shut to me (remain). I've yet to see a convincing argument to leave that doesn't lead with heart (immigration and the UK innate supremacy over Europe). There is a distinct lack of facts from both camps.
  - harel 11y ago
    For me its the opposite. My heart wants to stay, my head resists. To (maybe badly) put it in code, its like a great interface provided by this wonderful company people like to love, but the practical implementations of that interface are so lacking it looks bad on the interface itself.
- dageshi 11y ago
  There aren't any, it all depends on what kind of deal we'd get after we left and the EU isn't going to pre-negotiate something like that for a host of reasons. I am pro leaving, but I certainly expect a period of turbulence after we leave that'll likely last at least 2-5 years and will probably dampen growth somewhat, but I'm sure we will adapt.
pdkl95 11y ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMk6aVsl8Rs#t=66 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMk6aVsl8Rs#t=66 If you're interested in this topic, I recommend this discussion with (pragmatic) economist Mark Blyth and Yanis Varoufakis. They talk about brexit, Greece, and what it will take to fix the economic mess in the EU.
jzmx 11y ago
I think the race is way too early to call at this point, the campaign doesn't officially start till tomorrow. I reckon it's only safe to start betting in 30 days time, I could think of several circumstances where it could shift dramatically either way.
Overtonwindow 11y ago
Given the British' press ability to predict the last elections and political outcomes, I remind everyone that nothing is set until the votes are tallied. This article really gives us nothing but a snapshot that is probably already outdated.

36 points by yread 11y ago

I love Bloomberg's flair and talent when it comes to producing rich articles that feel like true web-based projects. In this story, for example, the way a single star falls from the EU crest at the top, and also how the cursor X-axis position acts as a guide for the marker on all charts on the page. However, one chart I take a (small) issue with is their "Today’s Brexit Likelihood Score" chart — surely it is much more intuitive to have the blue ('remain') bar filling up the inverse of what they're currently drawing? I.e. 76.27% filled

colinramsay 11y ago
I came here to say this. It's incredibly confusing to the point where I wonder if it's a mistake or bug.
- sarreph 11y ago
  Yeah, but what makes me think it is a mistake is that they are focussing on a '23% chance of Brexit' figure, using the same blue as the chart line. So perhaps what they really ought to do is just swap the line around.
  - jeroen 11y ago
    They should use the same 3 colours as in the line chart below, and not add undecided to remain.
morsch 11y ago
Maybe the color is supposed to reflect the result? It's blue now; if the polls were reversed it'd be red. It'd be much less confusing if they dropped the two dog icons and their labels.

FedexNOLLY 11y ago

nice

ordbajsare 11y ago

Brexit and the fall of the EU is the only way to save Europe.

Kenji 11y ago

It's funny how one might think that being in the EU is voluntary, but as it seems, a country cannot get out, or really, regain any sovereignty, for fear of economic problems. That is like saying "I cannot leave this abusive relationship because I will be lonely and heartbroken." and continue to get punched and scratched every day.

lmm 11y ago
Not really - I mean we always have the option to e.g. set all the country's hospitals on fire. It would just be a bad idea. Doesn't mean we "don't control our own hospitals"
gambiting 11y ago
If you are in a relationship with someone and you share rent for a flat, breaking up with them would mean that now you live on your own and have to pay 2x as much. It's a serious economic concern, because it might cripple you financially, at least until you find another roommate or move. But, that doesn't mean that you are not free to break up with someone. You just have to be an adult about it and live with the consequences.
- arrrg 11y ago
  I mean, there is a more subtle point right there. In actual abusive relationships this interdependency is one of the important factors that keeps the abused in the relationship. It’s one of the things that makes abusive relationships so hard to escape and consequently so horrific. That said, interdependency is also just as much a part of non-abusive and completely healthy relationships, i.e. the mere existence of interdependency doesn’t decide whether a relationship is abusive or not. To me the EU and UK relationship is a clearly non-abusive one. I wouldn’t call it healthy, but mostly because the UK is frequently completely disengaged from the process and disinterested in actually being part of the relationship. They could have so much say and power … but they don’t want to. Rather they want to spend all their time worrying and drawing up horror scenarios. I do not want the UK to leave, but I also don’t think that a UK this disengaged is not very productive to have inside the EU.
11y ago

monk_e_boy 11y ago

Should we stay or should we go? No one seems to have a clear idea. But the UK is full of middle aged and the older generation who are scared shitless of change. The younger generation (18 - 35) aren't in a position where the EU membership effects them in any tangible way. So we'll end up staying for the wrong reason. Fear. Where I live we get a metric shit tonne of EU funding, but I assume that if we left, the funding would just come from the government. Or we'd get none. Who knows? Who knows if the EU funding will dry up if we stay? We are so powerless it is unreal.

gambiting 11y ago
I get the exact opposite impression. The older generation doesn't give a crap about EU, it's not affecting them or their jobs in any way. They are the ones influenced most by the scaremongering of the media. It's the younger people who know that they will lose friends and jobs if Britain leaves, they are connected in the world and understand that implications for the people around them.
- monk_e_boy 11y ago
  Maybe it's different in cities? I can't talk for those people, but in the smaller towns and villages no one really cares much about our government, let alone the EU. Hackernews audience is a different set of people to those Sun and Daily Mail readers.
bshimmin 11y ago
From speaking to people both 18-35 and in older age brackets, I've actually found it's the opposite - the younger generation is relatively impassioned about staying (or mostly indifferent but can't really see why we would leave), and older generations are much more on the fence. In fact, I don't know anyone under 35 who is in favour of Brexit. The older generations, however, start talking about their distrust of Europe, of Germany in particular, and seem to have some vestigial jingoistic pride and feel that Britain is still, or at least can be again, a great nation which can manage perfectly well by itself, thank you very much. (Obviously I've not canvassed everyone in Britain - just about ten or fifteen people I know reasonably well.)

philh 11y ago

I'm more inclined to trust bookmakers than polls. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-refe... Currently, the best odds you can get for 'stay' are 4:9, and the best odds for 'leave' are 21:10, which suggests odds of about 2:1 for staying, i.e. Bloomberg is overconfident.

corin_ 11y ago
Sure, after last year we definitely don't want to be too eager to assume that pollsters know what's coming in the UK, and if they fail as spectacularly as in the GE then certainly the bookies may prove to have been more accurate, but then so could me picking chance percentages out of the air and telling people they're my predictions. What makes you think either the bookies or the punters have any clue what accurate pricing would be for that market?
- dageshi 11y ago
  As a counterpoint, referendums should be a lot easier to poll than a general election where FPTP makes things much more complicated. I would think comparing this referendum to the Scottish referendum would be the better comparison.
  - corin_ 11y ago
    You're right in theory, and for sure I wouldn't be shocked if the polls nail this one, but I also wouldn't be shocked if we saw that even without fptp and constituencies there's still enough of a problem with the quality of political polling in the UK to cause big mistakes. Time will tell, I guess.
- philh 11y ago
  The bookies' entire business model is to have a better clue than anyone else about what the accurate pricing would be. If they fail at that, they don't stay in business for very long.

harel 11y ago

This approach should be taken by both camps. By that I mean, use actual real data to drive their point. At the moment all we get from both sides us emotional opinions and speculation without a single data point to back it up. I am on the fence regarding the eu (and I'm both British and European nationality wise). I want to be persuaded this way or the other but not by emotions. I want cold hard facts and analysis. And I'm getting none of that.

blfr 11y ago
But the interesting argument is whether Britian would benefit in the long term from leaving the EU. This is not addressed by the chance of brexit happening, polling, or currency value over a couple of months. This whole "we looked at the data and what we found surprised us" almost never answers any interesting questions or generates lasting insights.
ed_blackburn 11y ago
Absolutely. It's a head vs heart debate. I understand the heart bit. But the head bit seems open-and-shut to me (remain). I've yet to see a convincing argument to leave that doesn't lead with heart (immigration and the UK innate supremacy over Europe). There is a distinct lack of facts from both camps.
- harel 11y ago
  For me its the opposite. My heart wants to stay, my head resists. To (maybe badly) put it in code, its like a great interface provided by this wonderful company people like to love, but the practical implementations of that interface are so lacking it looks bad on the interface itself.
dageshi 11y ago
There aren't any, it all depends on what kind of deal we'd get after we left and the EU isn't going to pre-negotiate something like that for a host of reasons. I am pro leaving, but I certainly expect a period of turbulence after we leave that'll likely last at least 2-5 years and will probably dampen growth somewhat, but I'm sure we will adapt.

pdkl95 11y ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMk6aVsl8Rs#t=66 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMk6aVsl8Rs#t=66 If you're interested in this topic, I recommend this discussion with (pragmatic) economist Mark Blyth and Yanis Varoufakis. They talk about brexit, Greece, and what it will take to fix the economic mess in the EU.

jzmx 11y ago

I think the race is way too early to call at this point, the campaign doesn't officially start till tomorrow. I reckon it's only safe to start betting in 30 days time, I could think of several circumstances where it could shift dramatically either way.

Overtonwindow 11y ago

Given the British' press ability to predict the last elections and political outcomes, I remind everyone that nothing is set until the votes are tallied. This article really gives us nothing but a snapshot that is probably already outdated.