Some would argue that we're finally at the place where most of the pieces necessary for strong AI are known, it's just a massive engineering challenge to put th

Some would argue that we're finally at the place where most of the pieces necessary for strong AI are known, it's just a massive engineering challenge to put them all together. Like going to the moon in 1958, or nuclear energy in 1938. We can draw smooth exponential lines like Kurzweil does and see when the level of complexity of our AI servants reaches the same level as the human brain (~30 years), or we can hope for a concerted human effort as was seen in both the 40's and the 60's. Either way it looks to be in our near future.