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Kessler is overhyped. The lower half of low earth orbit isn't a problem because everything there falls to earth in a year or two unless it is actively keeps its
by danielvf 11y ago
Kessler is overhyped. The lower half of low earth orbit isn't a problem because everything there falls to earth in a year or two unless it is actively keeps itself in orbit. Outside of LEO, there's massively more room, and massively less stuff. So the only area we need to consider is "high" LEO.
As a thought expiriment, consider the worst case - a hyper intelligent, pan dimensional being disassembles all spacecraft in high LEO. let's assume that's 1,000 US tons worth. ( I have no idea.) if these spacecraft pieces were spread into a sphere the size of the earth, that would be 1/40 billionth of a cm thick.
Since a sphere doesn't orbit, let's turn it into lethal 1cm cubes, all magically evenly distributed, orbiting at the same altitude, magically not colliding. That's one death cube every 4 square Km. What are the odd of flying a rocket through that layer? Pretty good actually. The layer is only certain death if you stay in it. We'd still have access to the solar system, geosynchronous orbit, and mid/low LEO even in the alien intelligence worst case Kessler syndrome.
( I have only worked this out on the back of a napkin. Corrections to math appreciated)