The Chelyabinsk asteroid that blew up over Russia in 2013 was, by comparison, about 500 kT and massed about 13000 tonnes. It blew up at at 30km altitude. One o

The Chelyabinsk asteroid that blew up over Russia in 2013 was, by comparison, about 500 kT and massed about 13000 tonnes. It blew up at at 30km altitude. One of these probes, hitting the upper atmosphere, would be so light as to vapourise almost instantly, turning into a expanding plug of high-speed plasma. This would have very little ability to penetrate the atmosphere. I think all you'd see is a flash in the very high upper atmosphere as the kinetic energy was dissipated as radiation and then it'd be gone.