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None of the automation that we're seeing is making it possible for one person to make everything he needs. Automation is increasing the returns to capital and m
by morgante 11y ago
None of the automation that we're seeing is making it possible for one person to make everything he needs. Automation is increasing the returns to capital and making it possible for corporations to produce things with fewer employees—none of that implies that you'll suddenly be able to make things yourself.
If anything, increasing automation increases the returns to scale. You might conceivably build your own torch. But you're certainly not going to purchase a million dollar torch-making machine.
Automation poses a threat to the traditional economic model, but on the supply side not the demand side—you'll still be buying as much as before, you just probably won't have a job.
- nickpinkston 11y agoHowever, at Plethora (my company) and others like ReThink robotics, etc. are lowering the barriers to automation so that small entities (people / firms) are able to develop products - which will put competitive pressure on current firms - driving price down and/or features up. Plethora does this by removing the setup costs of manufacturing so you can do short runs affordably and actually be "agile" in your production. ReThink does it by making it easy to automate existing SMB production lines - meaning small firms can automate what they have or rapidly reconfigure with lower setup costs.
- wcummings 11y agoI've had the opportunity to play around w/ Rethink's product. If this is the state of the art, I'm not even a little bit afraid of automation.
- nickpinkston 11y agoHaha - yea, there's a lot of work to do for sure. I'd argue also that just robotics isn't enough - cell design and machine interfacing is actually way more time than the robot programming itself.
- the_ancient 11y ago>>you'll still be buying as much as before, you just probably won't have a job. how will one continue to buy at the same level with no income?
- mblode 11y agoMaybe a universal basic income for the majority of the population which may become structurally unemployed caused by automation.
- the_ancient 11y agoThat would require a change to the current economic model, the comment I replied to seems to indicate that Automation was not a threat to demand at all, but if everyone is out of work, demand for non-essential goods will be 0, no one will want a iphone if they do not have food. So Automation is a threat to both supply and demand...
- morgante 11y agoSorry, perhaps my comment was unclear. Automation is not a threat to demand in the sense that people won't stop demanding products because they are making them at home (as OP ridiculously claimed). Rather, automation will drastically change the economics on the supply side. You're absolutely correct that unless managed well this could lead to mass poverty (and hence decreasing demand). I'm optimistic we will eventually find some solutions, either in the form of basic income or higher-order work.
- the_ancient 11y agoHistory would seem to indicate we will go the Way of Elysium not Star Trek.... Most of the world will live in poverty (just like today) and a increasingly smaller group of humans will live in extreme luxury. While idea's like UBI would be nice, the point to implement them I believe is past... They should have been created decades ago. If we wait until 20% or more of the jobs are replaced by automation, it will be to late for most people... Poverty will be the future... Poverty is the future for most.