3 ms·

Since there's lots of discussion here about overstays, here's the US government report for overstays broken down by country: https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/

by alister 11y ago

Since there's lots of discussion here about overstays, here's the US government report for overstays broken down by country: https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/FY%2015%20DHS%20Entry%20and%20Exit%20Overstay%20Report.pdf https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/FY%2015... Some highlights from the category of FY 2015 Overstay rates for nonimmigrants with B-1/B-2 visas admitted to the United States for business or pleasure via air and sea POEs for non-VWP Countries (excluding Canada and Mexico): Bulgaria 1.48% Romania 1.81% Average of all countries 1.60% The highest rates are Bhutan 23.98% and Djibouti 26.80%. One important factor that the report doesn't give is the difficulty of getting the visa in first place. Some countries have a much higher visa rejection rate by American consulates than others. Those would be interesting statistics to see. I couldn't find a similar report for Canada, but I'd expect the proportions by country to be similar, but perhaps higher overall for Canada since Canada is slightly easier to enter than the US.

akhatri_aus 11y ago
The correct column is the other one, 'Total overstay rate'. Also those stats for the Romania and Bulgaria are after refusing over 15% of all Visas applied for, which is sort of a filter that prevents the number from being dramatically higher. Under the VWP there would be no such filter. The other country to mention is Poland.
- alister 11y ago
  > The correct column is the other one, 'Total overstay rate'. Yes, you're right. I used the column that indicates "overstayed the visa and are still in the US as far as the DHS knows", whereas the Total Overstay is sum of those still in the US plus those who departed. Here are the correct figures since I can't modify my earlier comment: Bulgaria 1.74% Romania 2.06% Poland 1.49% (since you mentioned it) Average of all non-VWP countries 1.74% The highest rates are Bhutan 24.89% and Djibouti 27.67%. And for comparison: Average of all VWP countries 0.73% The highest rates in VWP countries are Hungary 2.92% and Slovakia 2.36%. > Also those stats for the Romania and Bulgaria are after refusing over 15% of all Visas applied for. I'm interested to know where you got that figure? If anything, I would have thought that US visa refusal rates would be even higher (varying by country of course).
  - akhatri_aus 11y ago
    I got it from here: https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Non-Immigrant-Statistics/RefusalRates/FY15.pdf https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Non-Im... Originally from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_Waiver_Program#Adjusted_Visa_Refusal_Rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_Waiver_Program#Adjusted_V...
    - alister 11y ago
      Even though it's on a US government website, I'm dubious about their numbers and methods. That report (and earlier ones from 2006-2014) are riddled with weird inconsistencies. Examples: (1) Vatican has 100% refusal it says. The Pope and 557 people have Vatican citizenship, and that's mostly cardinals and clergy. I doubt the US was turning away 25% of them. The overstay report (linked in my earlier comment) says that the Vatican (Holy See) had a 0% overstay rate. So the US was refusing 25% of visas from a country with 0% overstay? (2) Canada has 49% refusal it claims. But Canadians don't need to apply for B-category visas to enter the US; they get an "implied" B1 or B2 at the border. Canadians could get turned away at the US border and I'm sure some do, but it's certainly not 49% of Canadians. (3) The 2014 version of the report says that 100% of Serbia and Montenegro were refused visas! That's not credible. It's completely at odds with the overstay report that says that the US had 20,149 visitors from Serbia in 2015 and 17,422 in 2014, and 3,972 visitors from Montenegro in 2015 and 3,214 in 2014.

by alister 11y ago

akhatri_aus 11y ago

The correct column is the other one, 'Total overstay rate'. Also those stats for the Romania and Bulgaria are after refusing over 15% of all Visas applied for, which is sort of a filter that prevents the number from being dramatically higher. Under the VWP there would be no such filter. The other country to mention is Poland.

alister 11y ago
> The correct column is the other one, 'Total overstay rate'. Yes, you're right. I used the column that indicates "overstayed the visa and are still in the US as far as the DHS knows", whereas the Total Overstay is sum of those still in the US plus those who departed. Here are the correct figures since I can't modify my earlier comment: Bulgaria 1.74% Romania 2.06% Poland 1.49% (since you mentioned it) Average of all non-VWP countries 1.74% The highest rates are Bhutan 24.89% and Djibouti 27.67%. And for comparison: Average of all VWP countries 0.73% The highest rates in VWP countries are Hungary 2.92% and Slovakia 2.36%. > Also those stats for the Romania and Bulgaria are after refusing over 15% of all Visas applied for. I'm interested to know where you got that figure? If anything, I would have thought that US visa refusal rates would be even higher (varying by country of course).
- akhatri_aus 11y ago
  I got it from here: https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Non-Immigrant-Statistics/RefusalRates/FY15.pdf https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Non-Im... Originally from here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_Waiver_Program#Adjusted_Visa_Refusal_Rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_Waiver_Program#Adjusted_V...
  - alister 11y ago
    Even though it's on a US government website, I'm dubious about their numbers and methods. That report (and earlier ones from 2006-2014) are riddled with weird inconsistencies. Examples: (1) Vatican has 100% refusal it says. The Pope and 557 people have Vatican citizenship, and that's mostly cardinals and clergy. I doubt the US was turning away 25% of them. The overstay report (linked in my earlier comment) says that the Vatican (Holy See) had a 0% overstay rate. So the US was refusing 25% of visas from a country with 0% overstay? (2) Canada has 49% refusal it claims. But Canadians don't need to apply for B-category visas to enter the US; they get an "implied" B1 or B2 at the border. Canadians could get turned away at the US border and I'm sure some do, but it's certainly not 49% of Canadians. (3) The 2014 version of the report says that 100% of Serbia and Montenegro were refused visas! That's not credible. It's completely at odds with the overstay report that says that the US had 20,149 visitors from Serbia in 2015 and 17,422 in 2014, and 3,972 visitors from Montenegro in 2015 and 3,214 in 2014.