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A lot of people fail to even consider the consequences of possible breakthroughs in disciplines that helps discover more breakthroughs. Cascading discoveries a
by jobigoud 11y ago
A lot of people fail to even consider the consequences of possible breakthroughs in disciplines that helps discover more breakthroughs.
Cascading discoveries are already hard to think through very far, but discoveries that accelerate the pace at which we make discoveries make the whole thing very chaotic.
- LesZedCB 11y agoThis is described in The Singularity is Near (edit: or How to Create a Brain. I dont' remember which) as the Law of Accelerating Returns, and is exactly what this journalist falls prey to. Human brains are accustomed to viewing the world linearly, not exponentially. Cascading technological breakthroughs are exponential, and therefore highly unlikely to be able to be predicted correctly without accounting for that bias.