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> Once autonomous vehicles are ready for prime time, mass transit will be instantly forgotten. In some places, perhaps -- big American cities with decent overg

> Once autonomous vehicles are ready for prime time, mass transit will be instantly forgotten. In some places, perhaps -- big American cities with decent overground infrastructure capacity -- but the world will not just stop needing subways and trams. I cannot possibly imagine the chaos if the 5 million people who use the Hong Kong MTR every day suddenly started using cars.

CamperBob2 11y ago
I cannot possibly imagine the chaos if the 5 million people who use the Hong Kong MTR every day suddenly started using cars. That's because you haven't thought through what it's going to be like when those cars aren't driven by humans.
- culturestate 11y ago
  I've heard this assertion many times, but it almost never accounts for the fact that most of the world's urban cores are simply not designed for large volumes of vehicular traffic. There are about 550 miles of roadway in the parts of Hong Kong where the vast majority of people live and work; most of that is narrow, much of it is on steep grade, and almost all of it dates back to the days of pulled rickshaws. Self-driving cars will almost certainly replace the taxi fleet and may well kill the bus lines, but they have no hope of matching the capacity of an underground train in places like this.
  - CamperBob2 11y ago
    I can't speak with regard to Hong Kong. This article is about Seattle. Underground tunneling here is very expensive and subject to unique engineering problems that most areas don't have, which have been covered adequately elsewhere.
    - culturestate 11y ago
      The limitations we find in HK are broadly the same in every big, old city -- New York, Boston, London, Tokyo, Istanbul, and most any other place that got its start as a major population center before the early 1900s. Even if we throw out tunneled trains, something like Chicago's El will be miles more efficient in a dense urban core than trying to cram thousands more cars into streets that weren't designed for them.
      - CamperBob2 11y ago
        Even if we throw out tunneled trains, something like Chicago's El will be miles more efficient in a dense urban core than trying to cram thousands more cars into streets that weren't designed for them. Autonomous vehicles will help us get away from the idea that everyone has to own or lease their own car to be considered a full-fledged adult. Once cars are no longer used to travel arbitrarily from one parking lot to the next, the result will be more people getting to their actual destinations in fewer cars. This is a perfect example of the point I've been making (and been modded down regularly for) -- people simply aren't thinking through the consequences of the technology that's coming. The coming changes in the personal transportation business will be vast and profound in both economic and social terms, and they definitely won't involve fixed rails. It's OK for ordinary people to ignore or underestimate the progress being made in this direction. It's not OK for urban transit planners, who are paid to think 20-30 years out, to make the same mistake.
deleted 11y ago
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CamperBob2 11y ago

I cannot possibly imagine the chaos if the 5 million people who use the Hong Kong MTR every day suddenly started using cars. That's because you haven't thought through what it's going to be like when those cars aren't driven by humans.

culturestate 11y ago
I've heard this assertion many times, but it almost never accounts for the fact that most of the world's urban cores are simply not designed for large volumes of vehicular traffic. There are about 550 miles of roadway in the parts of Hong Kong where the vast majority of people live and work; most of that is narrow, much of it is on steep grade, and almost all of it dates back to the days of pulled rickshaws. Self-driving cars will almost certainly replace the taxi fleet and may well kill the bus lines, but they have no hope of matching the capacity of an underground train in places like this.
- CamperBob2 11y ago
  I can't speak with regard to Hong Kong. This article is about Seattle. Underground tunneling here is very expensive and subject to unique engineering problems that most areas don't have, which have been covered adequately elsewhere.
  - culturestate 11y ago
    The limitations we find in HK are broadly the same in every big, old city -- New York, Boston, London, Tokyo, Istanbul, and most any other place that got its start as a major population center before the early 1900s. Even if we throw out tunneled trains, something like Chicago's El will be miles more efficient in a dense urban core than trying to cram thousands more cars into streets that weren't designed for them.
    - CamperBob2 11y ago
      Even if we throw out tunneled trains, something like Chicago's El will be miles more efficient in a dense urban core than trying to cram thousands more cars into streets that weren't designed for them. Autonomous vehicles will help us get away from the idea that everyone has to own or lease their own car to be considered a full-fledged adult. Once cars are no longer used to travel arbitrarily from one parking lot to the next, the result will be more people getting to their actual destinations in fewer cars. This is a perfect example of the point I've been making (and been modded down regularly for) -- people simply aren't thinking through the consequences of the technology that's coming. The coming changes in the personal transportation business will be vast and profound in both economic and social terms, and they definitely won't involve fixed rails. It's OK for ordinary people to ignore or underestimate the progress being made in this direction. It's not OK for urban transit planners, who are paid to think 20-30 years out, to make the same mistake.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]