4 ms·
Thank you for the very thoughtful questions. A pretty fundamental question: why the Gresham Dollar and not regular dollars? Political reasons. The United Sta
by Suncho 11y ago
Thank you for the very thoughtful questions.
A pretty fundamental question: why the Gresham Dollar and not regular dollars?
Political reasons. The United States government could technically fund a basic income through deficit spending, but they won't. The Fed will inject money into the banks through TARP and QE etc, but there's no easy way for them to inject money at the consumer level, nor do they want to.
I mean, there's no practical limitation on the monetary authority creating more real dollars to pump into the economy.
Exactly. But they're not going to do it, so I'll do it myself.
The reason it doesn't (and the reason why it's fashionable to separate monetary authority from fiscal authority) is because of beliefs about pervasive inflation caused by large increases the supply of money, particularly if that comes in the form of handouts to those with a high marginal propensity to spend it.
Yes. That's exactly right. Last Spring, before I came up with the idea for Gresham Dollar, I realized that these inflationary concerns are unfounded. Obviously, if you dump $8 trillion into consumers' hands all at once, you'll have some kind of a problem, but an increase in spending is not inherently inflationary if we can scale our production to meet the new demand.
I could go on about this forever. But the bottom line is that printing money and handing people a basic income does not necessarily cause general price inflation and there are always ways to manage price levels.
But as far as I can see based on your outline, Gresham dollars are at best functionally equivalent to regular dollars in their effects on demand in the economy.
Yes. That's the idea.
Demand increases when they're handed out, supply lags, ergo prices go up.
In the short term, prices for certain things can go up. But, thanks to technology, our collective means of production is getting ever more scalable. That means prices can even come down as we produce more. It's not entirely clear what will happen to prices, but I have a few different models for different types of goods. Another example is that a basic income will likely cause people to migrate away from big cities and could put downward pressure on real estate prices in places like Silicon Valley.
It's all very fascinating. Anyway, the government thinks this kind of thing will automatically cause inflation. I don't. So I'm doing it.
But you can add in a [very] slight increase in cost of sale for merchants accepting GD, especially if they need to convert to regular dollars to pay their suppliers.
I'm not sure we need to do that. At first, the GD business will only be a small part of the sales these merchants make, so they can still pay their suppliers in USD and wait for their GD to convert. Later on, more businesses, including possibly their suppliers, will be accepting GD.
So why Gresham dollars? Why not just hand out newly minted regular dollars?
I wish they'd do that. Then I wouldn't have to work on this project.
Or food stamps, if the aim is to socially engineer how they're spent?
The idea isn't to socially engineer how they're spent. The idea is to subsidize consumer spending for the entire economy. I don't want to cause distortions in the markets. I receive food stamps myself and they are very economically inefficient.
As far as I can see, all the differences are disadvantages (confusion, costly new infrastructure, discouraging saving behaviour amongst low income beneficiaries)
Confusion and costly new infrastructure are certainly disadvantages. I disagree that discouraging saving behavior is a disadvantage. Especially in today's economy, consumer spending could use a boost.
- notahacker 11y agoThanks for the detailed clarification: that certainly helps understand where you're coming from. The trouble is that, as you've pointed out, the government firmly believes that putting newly minted money into consumers hands is a leading cause inflation. So they're not exactly going to be wildly keen on what you plan to do. And the government has a very strong and very legitimate interest in regulating financial instruments. Particularly financial instruments which promise to pay people dollars at some time in future but are under-collateralized and don't appear to be attached to any [significant] independent revenue stream. So the biggest question anyone considering involving themselves with your startup would have to ask is: why would regulators permit your service to exist?
- Suncho 11y agoThe trouble is that, as you've pointed out, the government firmly believes that putting newly minted money into consumers hands is a leading cause inflation. So they're not exactly going to be wildly keen on what you plan to do. Perhaps. But if the government even notices what I'm trying to do, I feel like that's almost a victory in itself. And if they try to stop me after I've already started, they'll have to justify taking incomes away from a lot of poor people. And the government has a very strong and very legitimate interest in regulating financial instruments. Particularly financial instruments which promise to pay people dollars at some time in future but are under-collateralized and don't appear to be attached to any [significant] independent revenue stream. Well, initially, they won't be under-collateralized. For the first few months or so, we'll be backing GD up 100%. My hope is that, as a digital currency, Gresham Dollar would be regulated as a commodity similarly to Bitcoin. You could certainly think of Gresham Dollar as a financial instrument, but in the actual operation of the currency, we're actually never going to promise to pay USD that we don't already have. So the biggest question anyone considering involving themselves with your startup would have to ask is: why would regulators permit your service to exist? Yes. I agree. So the answer to that question is that, as far as I can tell, the regulations to stop us don't exist yet and the government is going to have trouble regulating us away once we've planted our roots in the economy. The economy needs Gresham Dollar, and once we get started, that will become increasingly apparent to anyone (including regulators) who's paying attention. Ultimately, we would become an international operation and Gresham Dollar will become resistant to any one country's regulation. But yeah. None of what I just said makes this issue any less scary. We'll need to be very careful about the legal and political implications of how we structure what we're doing. It won't be easy.