2 ms·
I concede my math is off. The algebra is good, the arithmetic bad, right at the part I was declaring basis points. They're not bps, they're straight percentage
by rskar 11y ago
I concede my math is off. The algebra is good, the arithmetic bad, right at the part I was declaring basis points. They're not bps, they're straight percentage points (making the profit margin reductions off by a factor of 1/100 - d'oh!).
Redoing the math: Walmart, PM = -1.51% (=3.5 - 6 * 0.835); McDonalds, PM = 1.66% (=19 - 6 * 2.89). Clearly not tenable.
For the giggles, I then went I calc'd on price increases (putting aside supply-and-demand considerations) to cover $6/hr increase. PM and Markups came to 3.3% and 5% for Walmart; 16.2% and 17.4% for McDonalds. These are gross overestimations to be sure, since the approach is akin to giving every employee a huge wage boost, but really we need to know what proportion of employees would get the increase to meet some minimum wage level. Study at https://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2015/Q3/study-raising-wages-to-15-an-hour-for-limited-service-restaurant-employees-would-raise-prices-4.3-percent.html https://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2015/Q3/study-raisi... puts it around 4.3% for restaurants.
Anyway, plenty of good opinions on what we might see: http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015-12-22/minimum-wage-increase-comes-with-cadre-of-potential-complications http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015-12-22/minimum-wage-..., http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/december/effects-of-minimum-wage-on-employment/ http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic..., http://evans.uw.edu/centers-and-projects/minimum-wage-study http://evans.uw.edu/centers-and-projects/minimum-wage-study.
OK, this horse has been flogged pretty good.