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>"Some years back, some law enforcement agency in the US (but I forgot which) produced a highly-reliable indicator of drug mules on highways. The indicator was

by zo1 11y ago

>"Some years back, some law enforcement agency in the US (but I forgot which) produced a highly-reliable indicator of drug mules on highways. The indicator was black male, driving a late-model sedan, and traveling at exactly the speed limit (when everyone else was traveling 10-15 mph over the limit). The police were stopping and searching anyone who fit these indicators." I don't see anything with that sort of indicator. Call it profiling if you will, but I believe it's perfectly harmless assuming no excessive/unwarranted violence is used. That second part is important and drives the point of what I think actually needs to be addressed from the LE side. If it is indeed a bad or poor-performing indicator of a "drug mule", then it will go away eventually.

comex 11y ago
The problem with that type of indicator is that it will target the same people again and again. An X-ray scan is safe enough to be used in routine medical visits, yet the technician must step out of the room due to dosage effects; so too the effects of even well-regulated police attention are cumulative. (Part of this is probabilistic: if every encounter has an x% chance to go badly...) And that's true even if the indicator objectively performs relatively well, as long as there are innocent people affected. To go back to the current topic, banning all connections from certain countries is an effective way to cut down on fraud without decreasing sales too much; but that still screws over legitimate users from those countries.
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
deepnet 11y ago
Drug war laws have historically been a proxy for racism and prejudice. It could be extrapolated from that same data that 'black males obeying speed limits' are just easier to obtain convictions on - after all one has not 'caught' a 'drug mule' until the alleged is convicted. Studies have long shown it is easier to obtain convictions of black males, especially for drugs. More importantly for LEO funding today: is money seized can be kept with less blowback if disadvantaged minorities are targeted. Institutional & societal racism could perhaps better explain the statistic. Competent criminals adapt their muling system, throwing a patsy to cops once in a while - 'everybody' gets some. Clearly the drugs still get through.
- eru 11y ago
  If demand is given, then restricting supply a bit will drive up prices---encouraging innovations to increase supply.
jeremysmyth 11y ago
Aside from the probabilistic harm mentioned by sibling posts, there are also issues of self-fulfilling prophecies coming from fishing expeditions. Assume: - LEOs use profiling (based on statistical models) to target individuals who are not the subject of investigation but rather subjected to random stop/search/frisk. - They catch some "bad guys" by following this model. These assumptions are not dissimilar from the premise outlined in the grandparent post. Now, let's say the statistical model throws up "20-25 year old preppie white guy with glasses, called Peter" either through error or some odd outlier stat. If LEOs start to check out every 20-25 year old matching that description, sooner or later they're going to find drugs or a gun or a lot of cash or something. Their statistical model gets updated with these stats, and before long it becomes a truism that a disproportionate number of preppie Peters are criminals. If you shine a spotlight somewhere, that's where you'll find what you're looking for.

by zo1 11y ago

comex 11y ago

The problem with that type of indicator is that it will target the same people again and again. An X-ray scan is safe enough to be used in routine medical visits, yet the technician must step out of the room due to dosage effects; so too the effects of even well-regulated police attention are cumulative. (Part of this is probabilistic: if every encounter has an x% chance to go badly...) And that's true even if the indicator objectively performs relatively well, as long as there are innocent people affected. To go back to the current topic, banning all connections from certain countries is an effective way to cut down on fraud without decreasing sales too much; but that still screws over legitimate users from those countries.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

deepnet 11y ago

Drug war laws have historically been a proxy for racism and prejudice. It could be extrapolated from that same data that 'black males obeying speed limits' are just easier to obtain convictions on - after all one has not 'caught' a 'drug mule' until the alleged is convicted. Studies have long shown it is easier to obtain convictions of black males, especially for drugs. More importantly for LEO funding today: is money seized can be kept with less blowback if disadvantaged minorities are targeted. Institutional & societal racism could perhaps better explain the statistic. Competent criminals adapt their muling system, throwing a patsy to cops once in a while - 'everybody' gets some. Clearly the drugs still get through.

eru 11y ago
If demand is given, then restricting supply a bit will drive up prices---encouraging innovations to increase supply.

jeremysmyth 11y ago

Aside from the probabilistic harm mentioned by sibling posts, there are also issues of self-fulfilling prophecies coming from fishing expeditions. Assume: - LEOs use profiling (based on statistical models) to target individuals who are not the subject of investigation but rather subjected to random stop/search/frisk. - They catch some "bad guys" by following this model. These assumptions are not dissimilar from the premise outlined in the grandparent post. Now, let's say the statistical model throws up "20-25 year old preppie white guy with glasses, called Peter" either through error or some odd outlier stat. If LEOs start to check out every 20-25 year old matching that description, sooner or later they're going to find drugs or a gun or a lot of cash or something. Their statistical model gets updated with these stats, and before long it becomes a truism that a disproportionate number of preppie Peters are criminals. If you shine a spotlight somewhere, that's where you'll find what you're looking for.