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I have thought about this problem and came to the same conclusion - we need to move to nuclear. But then if most of our energy needs are from nuclear, now we're

by meric 11y ago

I have thought about this problem and came to the same conclusion - we need to move to nuclear. But then if most of our energy needs are from nuclear, now we're going to be back in the same situation in 50 years running out of uranium. Or we could sit in top of our coal power plants slurping oil, wait for the magical thorium reactor and/or solar power to become another 10 times more economical.

TeMPOraL 11y ago
Maybe not in 50 years, because it seems that we have a lot of fissile material available[0] that should last us for a long time - long enough to expand past this planet if we continue the growth curve, or at least to advance and deploy renewable solutions without a hurry. But yeah, with continued growth we would hit an energy ceiling in the future too. That ain't bad if reasonably managed - we could fix all the damage done to this planet and expand to the Solar System. But then again, humanity isn't exactly known for reasonable management. [0] - http://www.withouthotair.com/c24/page_162.shtml http://www.withouthotair.com/c24/page_162.shtml
- meric 11y ago
  http://www.withouthotair.com/c24/page_162.shtml http://www.withouthotair.com/c24/page_162.shtml: >> "A once-through one-gigawatt nuclear power station uses 162 tons per year of uranium" >> "World total (conventional reserves in the ground) 4.7[million tons]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption >> "The IEA estimates that, in 2013, total world energy consumption was 13,541 Mtoe , or 5.67 × 1020 joules, equal to an average power consumption of 18.0 terawatts.[3]" One gigawatt nuclear plant uses 162 tons per year. The world uses 18000 gigawatts per year. (40% oil, 10% coal, 15% natural gas, 35% other). If all the fossil fuel-based energy were replaced with nuclear power, the nuclear power plants need to provide 18000 gigawatts times 65% = 11700 gigawatts. 11700 gigawatts times 162 tons of uranium is 1.9 million tons of uranium, per year. The world's conventional reserves of 4.7 million tons will last for three years. The 22 million tons in Phosphate deposits will last for another 10 years. (if and when methods to mine them economically are discovered) Perhaps the seawater uranium will come in time, but as yet it is not an economical method of uranium extraction. The cost needs to be reduced by 5 to 10 times.

by meric 11y ago

TeMPOraL 11y ago

Maybe not in 50 years, because it seems that we have a lot of fissile material available[0] that should last us for a long time - long enough to expand past this planet if we continue the growth curve, or at least to advance and deploy renewable solutions without a hurry. But yeah, with continued growth we would hit an energy ceiling in the future too. That ain't bad if reasonably managed - we could fix all the damage done to this planet and expand to the Solar System. But then again, humanity isn't exactly known for reasonable management. [0] - http://www.withouthotair.com/c24/page_162.shtml http://www.withouthotair.com/c24/page_162.shtml

meric 11y ago
http://www.withouthotair.com/c24/page_162.shtml http://www.withouthotair.com/c24/page_162.shtml: >> "A once-through one-gigawatt nuclear power station uses 162 tons per year of uranium" >> "World total (conventional reserves in the ground) 4.7[million tons]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption >> "The IEA estimates that, in 2013, total world energy consumption was 13,541 Mtoe , or 5.67 × 1020 joules, equal to an average power consumption of 18.0 terawatts.[3]" One gigawatt nuclear plant uses 162 tons per year. The world uses 18000 gigawatts per year. (40% oil, 10% coal, 15% natural gas, 35% other). If all the fossil fuel-based energy were replaced with nuclear power, the nuclear power plants need to provide 18000 gigawatts times 65% = 11700 gigawatts. 11700 gigawatts times 162 tons of uranium is 1.9 million tons of uranium, per year. The world's conventional reserves of 4.7 million tons will last for three years. The 22 million tons in Phosphate deposits will last for another 10 years. (if and when methods to mine them economically are discovered) Perhaps the seawater uranium will come in time, but as yet it is not an economical method of uranium extraction. The cost needs to be reduced by 5 to 10 times.