3 ms·

Yes you put it much better than me. I agree that many of the underlying abstract aspects are largely unchanging, it's just the technologies that shift. If I we

by seanos 17y ago

Yes you put it much better than me. I agree that many of the underlying abstract aspects are largely unchanging, it's just the technologies that shift. If I were the best piano player in the world today, I'd probably still be one of the best in the world if I time travelled to 2030. On the other hand, if I were to have brain surgery in 2030 I probably wouldn't want the world's best surgeon from 2010 to time travel and do it.

mdg 17y ago
> On the other hand, if I were to have brain surgery in 2030 I probably wouldn't want the world's best surgeon from 2010 to time travel and do it. Or even, would you rather by a book on Java written 15 years ago, or written yesterday ?
- seanos 17y ago
  An interesting question might be: I decide I want to be an expert racing driver and I know in order to achieve that I need 10,000 hours of deliberate practice. So I look at the controls and I see that I have a clutch, an accelerator, a brake pedal and a steering wheel - I decide to spend 2500 hours of deliberate practice on each. After 10,000 hours I am an expert in accelerating as hard as possible without spinning the wheels (accelerator), heel and toe gear changes (clutch), braking as hard as possible without locking the wheels (brake) and following the optimum racing line (steering). The next day they introduce semi-automatic gearboxes, anti-lock brakes and traction control. Some of my 10,000 hours were spent on obsolete skills. Am I still an expert?
  - mdg 17y ago
    Touche; If you are racing manuals (or your codebase is jdk 1.0 er.. what it was 15 years ago), then no.
joeyo 17y ago
On the other hand, if I were to have brain surgery in 2030 I probably wouldn't want the world's best surgeon from 2010 to time travel and do it. I agree with your broader point, but your specific example is unfortunate. Surgery, and brain surgery in particular, has a lot more in common with the 19th century than the 21st. A disturbingly large amount of brain surgery is still accomplished via drill and very tiny ice cream scoops. I'd be surprised if that changes very much even in 20 years.

by seanos 17y ago

mdg 17y ago

> On the other hand, if I were to have brain surgery in 2030 I probably wouldn't want the world's best surgeon from 2010 to time travel and do it. Or even, would you rather by a book on Java written 15 years ago, or written yesterday ?

seanos 17y ago
An interesting question might be: I decide I want to be an expert racing driver and I know in order to achieve that I need 10,000 hours of deliberate practice. So I look at the controls and I see that I have a clutch, an accelerator, a brake pedal and a steering wheel - I decide to spend 2500 hours of deliberate practice on each. After 10,000 hours I am an expert in accelerating as hard as possible without spinning the wheels (accelerator), heel and toe gear changes (clutch), braking as hard as possible without locking the wheels (brake) and following the optimum racing line (steering). The next day they introduce semi-automatic gearboxes, anti-lock brakes and traction control. Some of my 10,000 hours were spent on obsolete skills. Am I still an expert?
- mdg 17y ago
  Touche; If you are racing manuals (or your codebase is jdk 1.0 er.. what it was 15 years ago), then no.

joeyo 17y ago

On the other hand, if I were to have brain surgery in 2030 I probably wouldn't want the world's best surgeon from 2010 to time travel and do it. I agree with your broader point, but your specific example is unfortunate. Surgery, and brain surgery in particular, has a lot more in common with the 19th century than the 21st. A disturbingly large amount of brain surgery is still accomplished via drill and very tiny ice cream scoops. I'd be surprised if that changes very much even in 20 years.