4 ms·
That doesn't make any sense. The intentions of the host prior to opening the second door shouldn't have any impact on the odds of picking a winning door. I co
by Splines 17y ago
That doesn't make any sense. The intentions of the host prior to opening the second door shouldn't have any impact on the odds of picking a winning door.
I could be wrong, but I think of it this way: You have a choice between picking one door, or picking two doors. If you choose to pick two doors, the host will happen to open one of them to reveal the non-prize. Irrespective of the differences between the wording of my problem and the MH problem, how are the actions different between the two?
Here's the flaw in your logic:
There's a 1/3 chance you picked right, and a 2/3 chance you picked wrong. In the 2/3 chance you picked wrong, there is a 1/2 chance of the correct door being revealed. No matter if the correct door is shown or not (in this case, it isn't shown), it doesn't change your original odds.
- cynicalkane 17y agoThe intentions of the host pass you information that you can use to choose the correct door. The information is this: "There's a 2/3 chance I was forced to reveal this door; ergo, there's a 2/3 chance the other door is the correct one." If the host is choosing randomly, no information is passed. With regards to your last paragraph, the odds of the host picking wrong are either 1/2 or 0 depending on the intentions of the host. I'm a tiny bit annoyed that you think you're pointing out a "flaw" in my logic when you missed something so simple, but whatever. If you don't like my explanation, direct your attention to the OP's link to Wikipedia, where there are many more variations and explanations that you might like.