4 ms·
I always find this the most interesting part of it: "A restated version of Selvin's problem appeared in Marilyn vos Savant's Ask Marilyn question-and-answer col
by PanMan 17y ago
I always find this the most interesting part of it:
"A restated version of Selvin's problem appeared in Marilyn vos Savant's Ask Marilyn question-and-answer column of Parade in September 1990 (vos Savant 1990). Though vos Savant gave the correct answer that switching would win two-thirds of the time, she estimates the magazine received 10,000 letters including close to 1,000 signed by PhDs, many on letterheads of mathematics and science departments, declaring that her solution was wrong (Tierney 1991). "
Especially the science PhD's (I have seen quotes from some of the letters..).
- tel 17y agoScience PhD's are on roughly the same ground as those poor MDs who didn't know what a positive test result does not imply high chances of having a rare disease. Statistics can be non-intuitive because common sense only ever approximates it at best. You've got to either always run the math or build some good heuristics for when to expect that common sense just failed you.