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Another similar problem from http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/mackay/itila/ http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/mackay/itila/ You visit a family whose three c
by sprachspiel 17y ago
Another similar problem from http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/mackay/itila/ http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/mackay/itila/
You visit a family whose three children are all at the local school.
You don't know anything about the sexes of the children. While walking
clumsily round the home, you stumble through one of the three
unlabeled bedroom doors that you know belong, one each, to the three
children, and find that the bedroom contains girlie stuff in
sufficient quantities to convince you that the child who lives in that
bedroom is a girl.
Later, you sneak a look at a letter addressed to the parents, which
reads `From the Headmaster: we are sending this letter to all parents
who have male children at the school to inform them about the
following boyish matters'.
These two sources of evidence establish that at least one of the three
children is a girl, and that at least one of the children is a boy.
What are the probabilities that there are (a) two girls and one boy;
(b) two boys and one girl?