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I wonder, when Tesla unveils something that doesn't fit within the parameters that those people think of as a 'car', how many will drop their reservation? Sinc

by djloche 11y ago

I wonder, when Tesla unveils something that doesn't fit within the parameters that those people think of as a 'car', how many will drop their reservation? Since we don't know the details yet, we don't know how much of a departure it will be.

electrograv 11y ago
I doubt that the demographic that pre-orders a Tesla Model 3 (years before shipping), is a demographic that is unwilling to embrace change. I also doubt that it will have no manual control mode, so it shouldn't an issue regardless. Tesla is clearly going the route of being a strict super-set of the capabilities of other cars, until the market decides what features are obsolete many years down the road (e.g. steering wheels).
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
- djloche 11y ago
  It's really a question of demographics. How many people that have put down a reserve are buying a car to drive vs buying a means of transportation? Obviously, this is all speculative since they haven't revealed what they're talking about.
  - marssaxman 11y ago
    I might like to buy a car with the Model 3's general parameters - I had the electrical service on my house redone a couple of years ago in part because I wanted to have the capacity to add a car charger someday - but I am almost completely uninterested in a Tesla because I am not on board with their "just sit back and trust us" philosophy. No, thank you, I don't trust you, or any car maker, and don't want your auto-updating auto-everything machine! And I basically just hate trying to deal with touch screens. They get smudgy and gross at the blink of an eye, and their total lack of tactile feedback demands a tedious degree of conscious attention which makes them inefficient ways of performing routine tasks, which adjustment of an automobile's cabin controls ought to be.
- johnward 11y ago
  "I also doubt that it will have no manual control mode, so it shouldn't an issue regardless." Could they even legally sell a vehicle with no human control right now?
partiallypro 11y ago
Yeah, most of the "reservations" are not going to be real customers. It's just something to tout to shareholders to justify their massive multiple. Tesla is in a race against the clock, they are practically corporate welfare queens with their subsidies and they continue to take on more debt.
- forgetsusername 11y ago
  >Tesla is in a race against the clock You can check my comment history: I'm as annoyed by the Tesla hype-machine as anybody. The games they play when reporting (or not reporting) financial metrics is astounding, and I don't understand why the SV crowd finds it acceptable for a public company. However, I want to see Tesla and the whole EV industry thrive. People just need to curb their expectations.
- whatever_dude 11y ago
  I'm confused by the assertion. Do you mean that a lot of people that reserved are not serious? They had to pay $1,000 for the reservation, so that looks unlikely to me. Or do you mean the company has inflated the number of actual reservations?
  - bryanlarsen 11y ago
    For example, I made a reservation. We expect to buy a car somewhere around 2018, so we made a reservation in case we want a Model 3. I expect the model 3 will be high on our list, but we'll definitely comparison shop when the time comes.
  - partiallypro 11y ago
    The $1000 is 100% refundable. A person that can afford a Tesla can afford to put down $1000 with no risk. Heck, even a normal middle class person could probably foot $1000 at no risk. Reservations are not sales. They are just something to tout to shareholders. If they wanted real numbers they'd make it non-refundable and up the down payment. The stock trades at an absolutely insane valuation (it's actually valued not too far from massive manufacturers like Ford and GM), the company will have to take on more debt to fulfill the reservations putting the company at liquidity risk. If the orders don't come through and you have increased debt burden, you're gonna have a bad time. This isn't something I'm making up, even the analysts at UBS agree.
fweespee_ch 11y ago
> I wonder, when Tesla unveils something that doesn't fit within the parameters that those people think of as a 'car', how many will drop their reservation? Tbh, I don't think Tesla cares. They have a ~$276 million dollar interest free loan with which to build the first wave of Model 3s. They just need to make enough on those sales to finance the next round until they get through everyone who wants one. The goal is primarily to pay for the initial production run so they don't have to get outside financing. http://bgr.com/2016/04/03/model-3-reservations-elon-musk-276000/ http://bgr.com/2016/04/03/model-3-reservations-elon-musk-276... > Earlier on Saturday, Musk indicated that Model 3 reservations checked in at about 232,000. That being the case, if the pace of reservations keeps up, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see Tesla report 300,000 reservations sometime later this week. And while the $1,000 deposits for the Model 3 are completely refundable, Tesla has effectively secured a $276 million interest free loan from eager buyers.
- dangrossman 11y ago
  > They have a ~$276 million dollar interest free loan with which to build the first wave of Model 3s This is a company that, while producing just 33K cars a year, has operating expenses of $114M per week. That $276M won't be around long enough to build a single Model 3. They're going to need a lot more money.

by djloche 11y ago

electrograv 11y ago

I doubt that the demographic that pre-orders a Tesla Model 3 (years before shipping), is a demographic that is unwilling to embrace change. I also doubt that it will have no manual control mode, so it shouldn't an issue regardless. Tesla is clearly going the route of being a strict super-set of the capabilities of other cars, until the market decides what features are obsolete many years down the road (e.g. steering wheels).

deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
djloche 11y ago
It's really a question of demographics. How many people that have put down a reserve are buying a car to drive vs buying a means of transportation? Obviously, this is all speculative since they haven't revealed what they're talking about.
- marssaxman 11y ago
  I might like to buy a car with the Model 3's general parameters - I had the electrical service on my house redone a couple of years ago in part because I wanted to have the capacity to add a car charger someday - but I am almost completely uninterested in a Tesla because I am not on board with their "just sit back and trust us" philosophy. No, thank you, I don't trust you, or any car maker, and don't want your auto-updating auto-everything machine! And I basically just hate trying to deal with touch screens. They get smudgy and gross at the blink of an eye, and their total lack of tactile feedback demands a tedious degree of conscious attention which makes them inefficient ways of performing routine tasks, which adjustment of an automobile's cabin controls ought to be.
johnward 11y ago
"I also doubt that it will have no manual control mode, so it shouldn't an issue regardless." Could they even legally sell a vehicle with no human control right now?

partiallypro 11y ago

Yeah, most of the "reservations" are not going to be real customers. It's just something to tout to shareholders to justify their massive multiple. Tesla is in a race against the clock, they are practically corporate welfare queens with their subsidies and they continue to take on more debt.

forgetsusername 11y ago
>Tesla is in a race against the clock You can check my comment history: I'm as annoyed by the Tesla hype-machine as anybody. The games they play when reporting (or not reporting) financial metrics is astounding, and I don't understand why the SV crowd finds it acceptable for a public company. However, I want to see Tesla and the whole EV industry thrive. People just need to curb their expectations.
whatever_dude 11y ago
I'm confused by the assertion. Do you mean that a lot of people that reserved are not serious? They had to pay $1,000 for the reservation, so that looks unlikely to me. Or do you mean the company has inflated the number of actual reservations?
- bryanlarsen 11y ago
  For example, I made a reservation. We expect to buy a car somewhere around 2018, so we made a reservation in case we want a Model 3. I expect the model 3 will be high on our list, but we'll definitely comparison shop when the time comes.
- partiallypro 11y ago
  The $1000 is 100% refundable. A person that can afford a Tesla can afford to put down $1000 with no risk. Heck, even a normal middle class person could probably foot $1000 at no risk. Reservations are not sales. They are just something to tout to shareholders. If they wanted real numbers they'd make it non-refundable and up the down payment. The stock trades at an absolutely insane valuation (it's actually valued not too far from massive manufacturers like Ford and GM), the company will have to take on more debt to fulfill the reservations putting the company at liquidity risk. If the orders don't come through and you have increased debt burden, you're gonna have a bad time. This isn't something I'm making up, even the analysts at UBS agree.

fweespee_ch 11y ago

> I wonder, when Tesla unveils something that doesn't fit within the parameters that those people think of as a 'car', how many will drop their reservation? Tbh, I don't think Tesla cares. They have a ~$276 million dollar interest free loan with which to build the first wave of Model 3s. They just need to make enough on those sales to finance the next round until they get through everyone who wants one. The goal is primarily to pay for the initial production run so they don't have to get outside financing. http://bgr.com/2016/04/03/model-3-reservations-elon-musk-276000/ http://bgr.com/2016/04/03/model-3-reservations-elon-musk-276... > Earlier on Saturday, Musk indicated that Model 3 reservations checked in at about 232,000. That being the case, if the pace of reservations keeps up, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see Tesla report 300,000 reservations sometime later this week. And while the $1,000 deposits for the Model 3 are completely refundable, Tesla has effectively secured a $276 million interest free loan from eager buyers.

dangrossman 11y ago
> They have a ~$276 million dollar interest free loan with which to build the first wave of Model 3s This is a company that, while producing just 33K cars a year, has operating expenses of $114M per week. That $276M won't be around long enough to build a single Model 3. They're going to need a lot more money.