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BackerTracker: Track crowdfunding projects and see how much they'll raise

56 points by garry 11y ago

happyclam 11y ago
More on how the funding projections work here: https://www.backerkit.com/blog/85-backertracker-predictions-trending-projects https://www.backerkit.com/blog/85-backertracker-predictions-...
silentscope 11y ago
If it gives a good ballpark estimate it's a game changer for these platforms.
- mbs348 11y ago
  thanks, we've found that it does take about 5-6 days before there is enough data, but from there they are a good approximation. One cool thing is that since it is a historical model, if some major event happens during your campaign (big media hit, some successful paid adverts etc), the model will adapt accordingly.
ihuman 11y ago
I don't mean to be negative, but this looks like a version of Kicktraq[1] with less information. [1] https://www.kicktraq.com/ https://www.kicktraq.com/
- mbs348 11y ago
  What we are trying to do is focus a bit more on building a model that is based on how projects have done in the past. Our model learns from each completed project, and helps create better predictions. I am no Kicktraq expert, but I think their graphs boil down to something like rate of funding today * number of remaining days. I think they published a great blog post to this effect a few years ago.
  - punkybr3wster 11y ago
    You mean this one? http://blog.kicktraq.com/the-state-of-projections/ http://blog.kicktraq.com/the-state-of-projections/ Don't be intellectually dishonest. You aren't naive enough to not know they had this exact same functionality as big as they are and as long as they've been around. You copied their projection charts which use a weighted historical model too. Your charts even look EXACTLY like theirs. Their projection also takes a few days to build an accurate estimation. So why did you really release this? If you think you can do better, or have some other piece of functionality, just say so. Don't pretend you didn't know something like this didn't already exist.
tlarkworthy 11y ago
Predictive modeling of kickstarter http://sidekick.epfl.ch/ http://sidekick.epfl.ch/

56 points by garry 11y ago

More on how the funding projections work here: https://www.backerkit.com/blog/85-backertracker-predictions-trending-projects https://www.backerkit.com/blog/85-backertracker-predictions-...

silentscope 11y ago

If it gives a good ballpark estimate it's a game changer for these platforms.

mbs348 11y ago
thanks, we've found that it does take about 5-6 days before there is enough data, but from there they are a good approximation. One cool thing is that since it is a historical model, if some major event happens during your campaign (big media hit, some successful paid adverts etc), the model will adapt accordingly.

ihuman 11y ago

I don't mean to be negative, but this looks like a version of Kicktraq[1] with less information. [1] https://www.kicktraq.com/ https://www.kicktraq.com/

mbs348 11y ago
What we are trying to do is focus a bit more on building a model that is based on how projects have done in the past. Our model learns from each completed project, and helps create better predictions. I am no Kicktraq expert, but I think their graphs boil down to something like rate of funding today * number of remaining days. I think they published a great blog post to this effect a few years ago.
- punkybr3wster 11y ago
  You mean this one? http://blog.kicktraq.com/the-state-of-projections/ http://blog.kicktraq.com/the-state-of-projections/ Don't be intellectually dishonest. You aren't naive enough to not know they had this exact same functionality as big as they are and as long as they've been around. You copied their projection charts which use a weighted historical model too. Your charts even look EXACTLY like theirs. Their projection also takes a few days to build an accurate estimation. So why did you really release this? If you think you can do better, or have some other piece of functionality, just say so. Don't pretend you didn't know something like this didn't already exist.

tlarkworthy 11y ago

Predictive modeling of kickstarter http://sidekick.epfl.ch/ http://sidekick.epfl.ch/