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Hmm. All problems that could have been set at the door of internal combustion when it was new. They'll be solved as EVs make up a larger percentage of what's

Hmm. All problems that could have been set at the door of internal combustion when it was new. They'll be solved as EVs make up a larger percentage of what's on the road. Are EVs the endgame? I suspect not. Apart from anything else I think it's going to prove far, far harder to replace trucks than buses and cars with EVs. Would we be better investing in public transport that's convenient and reliable enough people want to use? Certainly. But we like personal vehicles. They're not going to go away easily. In fact just like horses and steam trains became a leisure pursuit, I suspect ICEs will also become something for play. The old v8 classic, the motorbike, the quad. You might have increasing difficulty getting fuel, so start lugging 5g jerry cans around in your EV to fuel the Mustang weekend toy. EVs can't beat the soul and sound of a v8 or Triumph triple.

phineastcat 11y ago
ICE cars will go first. Most personal cars are only driven a small mileage per day and don't need to carry much weight. Needing to go more than 350 miles in a day, or needing to tow a trailer are statistical outliers to most users. Anyone who occasionally needs to go really far or carry more weight will find another solution. As you said, I doubt ICE cars will go away completely. There's too much hobby/enthusiasm behind them for that to happen. Trucks, buses, and planes will take much, much longer to phase out because of their extreme needs; e.g. light, compact power with a huge range. Any other problems outside the vehicles themselves will be solved very quickly as they gain more market share.
- anexprogrammer 11y ago
  Quite so. The Honda Accord, or Ford Focus family car that takes the kids to school, a 30 mile daily commute and a few trips to the shops is the low hanging fruit. They're easy to replace. If you need something to haul a big caravan for holiday, or trailer for a move. Just rent - the rental shops will expand to fit nicely. Probably a nice big diesel. The v8 offroader that actually works offroad, the truck, and shipping are on diesel for the forseeable. I don't even see the space requirements to cater for EVs charging needs as much of an issue. We already have service areas on motorways in Europe. Huge spaces with a petrol station in the far corner. We'll have to adjust to 500 mile journeys including a couple of rest/coffee breaks. If you have young kids they already do. Only difference is plug the car in before going inside. We might have to resurrect a few diners (with charging) along the way on rural or non motorway roads. I think I like that.
  - Roboprog 11y ago
    Anecdata: I (almost) bought a used Nissan Leaf (~ $10K) a while back. For taking my daughter to work (about 20 miles round trip), it was great. Just put it back on the charger, which was only a 15 amp 110 V charger, and it was ready to go again in a few hours. (edit: it still had 2/3 the battery left, but was fully recharged in just a few hours) Unfortunately, my commute is a bit further (almost 50 miles), which left almost nothing in the slightly aged battery, and caused a "non linear" increase in charge time (without getting a 220 V upgrade charger) The car (Leaf) was plenty peppy, but the range dropped considerably when going 65 to 70 MPH on the freeway, vs 30 to 50 MPH through town. The maintenance schedule was something like "check the break system every 6 months; get new tires every 3 years; replace the battery every 8 years" (or something along that line). Still, if you have a short commute, or, as a "mom-mobile", getting a used EV is a no brainer (especially if you have cheap electricity like under Sac's SMUD utility). Just rent the vacation car twice a year. When we fly, that's what we do, anyway.
    - mr337 11y ago
      Good choice, I have a leaf and 50 miles round trip at with a good chunk of highway speeds is doable with a new battery. Once it gets a little age you'll be white knuckling it, especially when it comes to winter (depends how cold). If you had a 220 at your destination then its a no brainer. My parents and in laws are 47 and 42 miles apart respectively. I installed 220v outlets so I can bring my charger with me.
  - VLM 11y ago
    "Probably a nice big diesel." There's an interesting synergy with other technologies. For example, its pretty trivial to prove you'd have to cover the surface of the earth with a ridiculous number of sunflowers to grow enough oil to power the world with biodiesel using existing vehicles. However, if 99.9% of car miles driven were solar electric, if not more, then its quite realistic to power every rental truck in the world off biodiesel. My lifetime driving so far is around 200K miles, and I've driven the home depot truck, enterprise rent a car, and u-haul trucks a total of perhaps 200 miles, so a thousandth of miles driven being biodiesel powered doesn't sound terribly unrealistic on average.
Reason077 11y ago
I think it's going to prove far, far harder to replace trucks than buses and cars with EVs The economics don't stack up today for long-distance EV trucking, but it's quite possible that they will in a decade or so, with ongoing incremental improvements in battery costs and energy density. The limitations now are cost and infrastructure, not technology. If we imagine, say, an HGV with a 500kWh battery pack then it should be able to haul a typical load for hundreds of miles between charges. Fast chargers can be installed at existing truck stops. HGV drivers in Europe are legally required to take rest periods every 4.5 hours (and can drive for a maximum of 9 hours per day), so stopping for charging on a similar schedule would not have much impact on existing work practices. 350kWh packs are already being used today for double-decker busses in London, which can run all day without recharging. So 500kWh (or more?) packs in HGVs are not unrealistic. The only exceptional case I can think of is extreme long-haul trucking in remote, off-grid locations (think Australian Outback, or Ice Road Truckers). Those may be the last hold-outs for fossil fuelled vehicles.
- anexprogrammer 11y ago
  I think the best solution involves evoluton of the delivery network, so maybe EV haulage is closer than I think.. An EV light truck is perfect for the final delivery to home or shop, and doubly so in congested inner cities with pollution charges, like London. I could be wrong, but I thought the London Routemasters were hybrids? HGV delivery might evolve to a combination of more rail, longhaul diesel HGVs and EV light trucks, or even full EV HGVs where the range is lower. Like making several supermarket drops in a city. Whatever way you look at it, we're already making excellent, and suprisingly quick, progress.
  - Reason077 11y ago
    The "New Routemaster" busses are indeed diesel-electric hybrids, but London is also now testing new fully electric double deckers: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/world-s-first-electric-double-decker-bus-london-a6934646.html http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/wor... We already see a few EV delivery vans around (Nissan have one based on the Leaf technology). They need to get a bit bigger and have longer range before they'll start replacing all the diesel vans, but we are indeed making progress. There's various problems with using intermodal rail for things like supermarket deliveries, though, at least in the UK. It's not really compatible with the just-in-time model that supermarkets and other retailers operate, where the supermarket places an order every day based on their real-time sales data which is fulfilled overnight from their large regional distribution centres. Consider a shift from truckloads of goods to intermodal container loads: you'd be going truck-rail-truck, with all the inefficiencies of transferring between modes. You'd need intermodal freight depots on the outskirts of cities, shunting yards, etc which just don't exist any more. You wouldn't actually be cutting down on city traffic, since the same number of local trips would need to be made anyway. And the distances involved from distribution centre to supermarket are usually relatively short, so there just isn't a huge fuel saving to be made in using rail.

phineastcat 11y ago

ICE cars will go first. Most personal cars are only driven a small mileage per day and don't need to carry much weight. Needing to go more than 350 miles in a day, or needing to tow a trailer are statistical outliers to most users. Anyone who occasionally needs to go really far or carry more weight will find another solution. As you said, I doubt ICE cars will go away completely. There's too much hobby/enthusiasm behind them for that to happen. Trucks, buses, and planes will take much, much longer to phase out because of their extreme needs; e.g. light, compact power with a huge range. Any other problems outside the vehicles themselves will be solved very quickly as they gain more market share.

anexprogrammer 11y ago
Quite so. The Honda Accord, or Ford Focus family car that takes the kids to school, a 30 mile daily commute and a few trips to the shops is the low hanging fruit. They're easy to replace. If you need something to haul a big caravan for holiday, or trailer for a move. Just rent - the rental shops will expand to fit nicely. Probably a nice big diesel. The v8 offroader that actually works offroad, the truck, and shipping are on diesel for the forseeable. I don't even see the space requirements to cater for EVs charging needs as much of an issue. We already have service areas on motorways in Europe. Huge spaces with a petrol station in the far corner. We'll have to adjust to 500 mile journeys including a couple of rest/coffee breaks. If you have young kids they already do. Only difference is plug the car in before going inside. We might have to resurrect a few diners (with charging) along the way on rural or non motorway roads. I think I like that.
- Roboprog 11y ago
  Anecdata: I (almost) bought a used Nissan Leaf (~ $10K) a while back. For taking my daughter to work (about 20 miles round trip), it was great. Just put it back on the charger, which was only a 15 amp 110 V charger, and it was ready to go again in a few hours. (edit: it still had 2/3 the battery left, but was fully recharged in just a few hours) Unfortunately, my commute is a bit further (almost 50 miles), which left almost nothing in the slightly aged battery, and caused a "non linear" increase in charge time (without getting a 220 V upgrade charger) The car (Leaf) was plenty peppy, but the range dropped considerably when going 65 to 70 MPH on the freeway, vs 30 to 50 MPH through town. The maintenance schedule was something like "check the break system every 6 months; get new tires every 3 years; replace the battery every 8 years" (or something along that line). Still, if you have a short commute, or, as a "mom-mobile", getting a used EV is a no brainer (especially if you have cheap electricity like under Sac's SMUD utility). Just rent the vacation car twice a year. When we fly, that's what we do, anyway.
  - mr337 11y ago
    Good choice, I have a leaf and 50 miles round trip at with a good chunk of highway speeds is doable with a new battery. Once it gets a little age you'll be white knuckling it, especially when it comes to winter (depends how cold). If you had a 220 at your destination then its a no brainer. My parents and in laws are 47 and 42 miles apart respectively. I installed 220v outlets so I can bring my charger with me.
- VLM 11y ago
  "Probably a nice big diesel." There's an interesting synergy with other technologies. For example, its pretty trivial to prove you'd have to cover the surface of the earth with a ridiculous number of sunflowers to grow enough oil to power the world with biodiesel using existing vehicles. However, if 99.9% of car miles driven were solar electric, if not more, then its quite realistic to power every rental truck in the world off biodiesel. My lifetime driving so far is around 200K miles, and I've driven the home depot truck, enterprise rent a car, and u-haul trucks a total of perhaps 200 miles, so a thousandth of miles driven being biodiesel powered doesn't sound terribly unrealistic on average.

Reason077 11y ago

I think it's going to prove far, far harder to replace trucks than buses and cars with EVs The economics don't stack up today for long-distance EV trucking, but it's quite possible that they will in a decade or so, with ongoing incremental improvements in battery costs and energy density. The limitations now are cost and infrastructure, not technology. If we imagine, say, an HGV with a 500kWh battery pack then it should be able to haul a typical load for hundreds of miles between charges. Fast chargers can be installed at existing truck stops. HGV drivers in Europe are legally required to take rest periods every 4.5 hours (and can drive for a maximum of 9 hours per day), so stopping for charging on a similar schedule would not have much impact on existing work practices. 350kWh packs are already being used today for double-decker busses in London, which can run all day without recharging. So 500kWh (or more?) packs in HGVs are not unrealistic. The only exceptional case I can think of is extreme long-haul trucking in remote, off-grid locations (think Australian Outback, or Ice Road Truckers). Those may be the last hold-outs for fossil fuelled vehicles.

anexprogrammer 11y ago
I think the best solution involves evoluton of the delivery network, so maybe EV haulage is closer than I think.. An EV light truck is perfect for the final delivery to home or shop, and doubly so in congested inner cities with pollution charges, like London. I could be wrong, but I thought the London Routemasters were hybrids? HGV delivery might evolve to a combination of more rail, longhaul diesel HGVs and EV light trucks, or even full EV HGVs where the range is lower. Like making several supermarket drops in a city. Whatever way you look at it, we're already making excellent, and suprisingly quick, progress.
- Reason077 11y ago
  The "New Routemaster" busses are indeed diesel-electric hybrids, but London is also now testing new fully electric double deckers: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/world-s-first-electric-double-decker-bus-london-a6934646.html http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/wor... We already see a few EV delivery vans around (Nissan have one based on the Leaf technology). They need to get a bit bigger and have longer range before they'll start replacing all the diesel vans, but we are indeed making progress. There's various problems with using intermodal rail for things like supermarket deliveries, though, at least in the UK. It's not really compatible with the just-in-time model that supermarkets and other retailers operate, where the supermarket places an order every day based on their real-time sales data which is fulfilled overnight from their large regional distribution centres. Consider a shift from truckloads of goods to intermodal container loads: you'd be going truck-rail-truck, with all the inefficiencies of transferring between modes. You'd need intermodal freight depots on the outskirts of cities, shunting yards, etc which just don't exist any more. You wouldn't actually be cutting down on city traffic, since the same number of local trips would need to be made anyway. And the distances involved from distribution centre to supermarket are usually relatively short, so there just isn't a huge fuel saving to be made in using rail.