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TL;DR: IMHO, if nothing will change drastically in battery tech, after 100 years, we will have same problem with EVs as we now have the problem with combustion

by trymas 11y ago

TL;DR: IMHO, if nothing will change drastically in battery tech, after 100 years, we will have same problem with EVs as we now have the problem with combustion engines and oil. IMHO, one of the biggest problems from the tech side (I know that there are many hard problems, but this concerns me the most) is battery manufacturing. They already have built the gigafactory which produces (or will produce) more batteries (or the power they produce) than the rest factories in the world. But battery technology must have a breakthrough and probably sooner than most of us think. Currently known lithium reserves will 'support global demand until 2100' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves). Also, very efficient battery recycling and reuse must be further developed. I hope that in 100 years, we'll discover and develop battery technology which is affordable, ecological (will not deplete Earth's recourses completely), efficient (e.g. power to weight ratio), etc. I know that there is development going for this, but I think it will be a long time until new battery tech will be in our home.

vrfcodf 11y ago
I agree with you, although it is incorrect to assume that batteries will be always lithium based.
- trymas 11y ago
  I know that, though what I meant is that battery manufacturing can be limiting factor for EVs if they are dependent on limited resources.
  - vrfcodf 11y ago
    Limiting resources are a limiting factor, kinda a tautology.
mikeash 11y ago
Lithium in batteries doesn't get used up. It just sits there doing its thing, and when the battery wears out, you can recover the lithium and use it in a new battery. It's not currently economical to do so in most cases, but that's largely a function of it just being cheaper to extract it from the ground. It's not comparable to oil, which is inherently destroyed when used to propel vehicles.
NickM 11y ago
There's a big difference between "currently known lithium reserves" and "worldwide lithium reserves". There's not much incentive to find additional reserves when you can essentially just pick it up off the ground in Bolivia, but if prices start to go up you can bet people will find other ways to get it. If all else fails, you can extract an essentially limitless amount from seawater, but that would be much more difficult and expensive that current methods, so nobody's bothering to find out how to do it cheaply at scale (yet?). In any case, elemental lithium is a very small part of the cost of a lithium-ion cell, so this shouldn't impact the EV market much. And you can already recycle the lithium from batteries, so once you have enough to support the world's transport needs, you're pretty much set.

by trymas 11y ago

vrfcodf 11y ago

I agree with you, although it is incorrect to assume that batteries will be always lithium based.

trymas 11y ago
I know that, though what I meant is that battery manufacturing can be limiting factor for EVs if they are dependent on limited resources.
- vrfcodf 11y ago
  Limiting resources are a limiting factor, kinda a tautology.

mikeash 11y ago

Lithium in batteries doesn't get used up. It just sits there doing its thing, and when the battery wears out, you can recover the lithium and use it in a new battery. It's not currently economical to do so in most cases, but that's largely a function of it just being cheaper to extract it from the ground. It's not comparable to oil, which is inherently destroyed when used to propel vehicles.

NickM 11y ago

There's a big difference between "currently known lithium reserves" and "worldwide lithium reserves". There's not much incentive to find additional reserves when you can essentially just pick it up off the ground in Bolivia, but if prices start to go up you can bet people will find other ways to get it. If all else fails, you can extract an essentially limitless amount from seawater, but that would be much more difficult and expensive that current methods, so nobody's bothering to find out how to do it cheaply at scale (yet?). In any case, elemental lithium is a very small part of the cost of a lithium-ion cell, so this shouldn't impact the EV market much. And you can already recycle the lithium from batteries, so once you have enough to support the world's transport needs, you're pretty much set.