3 ms·

Would you agree that the following is most likely true? p(long_term_safety|overdose_non_lethal) > p(long_term_safety|overdose_lethal) That is, if an acute over

Would you agree that the following is most likely true? p(long_term_safety|overdose_non_lethal) > p(long_term_safety|overdose_lethal) That is, if an acute overdose of modafinil is not lethal, then it is more likely that the drug is safe for long term use. An equivalent acute overdose of caffeine would cause ventricular fibrillation and death. Yet few people are concerned about caffeine's long-term safety. Also, notice the side effects of modafinil overdose: nausea, nervousness, and insomnia. Side effects of caffeine overdose include hallucinations, psychosis, and rapid muscle breakdown leading to kidney failure. Although modafinil's mechanism of action isn't well-understood, evidence points to it having a neuroprotective effect. See http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2654794/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2654794/ . So if anything, it's probably beneficial in the long-term.

sailormoon 17y ago
While I happen to agree with you, I think that andrewf was pointing out that while modafinil is known not to be an acute toxin, that says little as to whether it is a chronic toxin, since its mechanism is poorly understood and may have undesirable long-term side effects. A good example might be fructose, which you'd have to try very hard indeed to overdose on, but seems to be a long-term chronic toxin with many unpleasant effects, the high LD50 and the advisability of taking it at all being quite unrelated, indeed opposing.
- AngryParsley 17y ago
  Yes, there are many counterexamples, but most compounds that are safe in large acute doses are safe in small long-term doses. Given this evidence, the studies showing neuroprotective effects, and the fact that modafinil has been around since the 80's, I assign high probability to its long-term safety.
andreyf 17y ago
Sure, but p(getting murdered|having recently bought ice cream) > p(getting murdered|having recently bought a christmas tree), also ;)

sailormoon 17y ago

While I happen to agree with you, I think that andrewf was pointing out that while modafinil is known not to be an acute toxin, that says little as to whether it is a chronic toxin, since its mechanism is poorly understood and may have undesirable long-term side effects. A good example might be fructose, which you'd have to try very hard indeed to overdose on, but seems to be a long-term chronic toxin with many unpleasant effects, the high LD50 and the advisability of taking it at all being quite unrelated, indeed opposing.

AngryParsley 17y ago
Yes, there are many counterexamples, but most compounds that are safe in large acute doses are safe in small long-term doses. Given this evidence, the studies showing neuroprotective effects, and the fact that modafinil has been around since the 80's, I assign high probability to its long-term safety.

andreyf 17y ago

Sure, but p(getting murdered|having recently bought ice cream) > p(getting murdered|having recently bought a christmas tree), also ;)