6 ms·

Where I live, it's already gobs cheaper. I live in Shizuoka prefecture in Japan. We get about 2200 hours of sunshine a year at a latitude of about 35N. I pay

Where I live, it's already gobs cheaper. I live in Shizuoka prefecture in Japan. We get about 2200 hours of sunshine a year at a latitude of about 35N. I pay the equivalent of about 35 cents per kWh for electricity from the local power station (hey, they turned off all the nuclear power stations and the only fuel we have is gas from Russia). You can buy solar panels in any electronics store. If you go to the mall, you will run into billboards and displays and salespeople wanting to sell you solar panels. Already, if I walk down the street at least 30% of the houses have solar panels. Lately virtually every single apartment building has put solar panels on the roof. All the farmers are putting up vast solar arrays because they can make more money doing that than growing food (which worries me quite a lot... food security is pretty important for a chain of islands off the coast of China). I'm really curious to see how this affects pricing going forward.

Roboprog 11y ago
I live just outside the Sacramento area. Talking to a coworker, I was surprised to learn that SMUD's (Sac area utility) highest "tier" rate was just under PG&E's (most of the rest of CA) lowest "tier" rate. Once you use your "quota" of electricity (easy to do with kids), you move out of tier 1 base pricing ($0.18/kwh for PG&E) into tier 2, which is currently $0.25/kwh, then tier 3, then tier 4 (which I think is in the $0.35 to $0.40 range per kwh). So, putting in at least a partial system is a no brainer. If you look on the price map in the article, there is a pale colored blob around Sacramento, which reflects that SMUD's prices are a great deal less than PG&E's. I don't know that solar makes sense if you are on SMUD. During Spring break (nice sunny but not hot) weather, we generated a surplus (although we would not have if it were cloudy). I'm looking forward to being able to use the A/C this summer w/out getting a $300 to $400 electric bill.
pilom 11y ago
Hawaii is another great example. $0.40-$0.50/kWh for their oil generated electricity. Solar comes in even cheaper than the article mentions. There have been so many solar installations in Hawaii that the power company has effectively put a moratorium on installations that don't include storage because they can't cover the swings in demand when a cloud rolls through town. They expect things will get better once they install a connection between the islands to connect their grids, but for the moment, the power company can't handle the market penetration.
- ZeroGravitas 11y ago
  > the power company can't handle the market penetration. When it comes to solar power, and anything else with externalities, it's always best to be clear whether "can't" means "has no economic incentive to do so" or not. In this particular case I'd say we are below the optimum level of solar, and it's just poorly aligned incentives. edit: just to re-iterate this in clearer language: If they "can" do something if they spent $X million dollars, and $X million dollars is less than the total amount saved by the economy of Hawaii by doing so, then it's not a technical problem, it's an economic co-ordination problem. If the utility is going to lose money from doing something, because they can't capture all the resulting profit (like lower pollution meaning healthier people) then their employees will say they "can't" do something, as no-one gets promoted for making children healther on the utility shareholders dime. Even though they could if someone gave them the money. There's lots of BS surrounding solar, and a main thread of it is to pretend that it's going to blow up the electrical grid. The only thing it destroys is some current utility business models.
  - zeta0134 11y ago
    Well, consider that the conditions are quite a bit different. With conventional power, you have a small number of sources (plants) and relatively slow, predictable swings in demand. Things like temperature changes throughout the day, or the end of rush hour and resulting spike in entertainment electronics usage. Contrast this with solar, with a large number of much smaller sources, and on top of the large predictable swings in demand, you add rapid, unpredictable swings in supply to the mix. That is a very different problem. It's solvable, just not using the same techniques and equipment that worked before.
  - jcrawfordor 11y ago
    While there is certainly a market incentives problem, accomodating large quantities of rooftop solar does require infrastructure upgrades and an associated massive capital investment. It may not be practical for a relatively small island utility to do this on their own, even if it had a more clear ROI. Ultimately, some government support may be required here, since a fee on solar installations wouldn't be popular.
cli 11y ago
How difficult is it to install and maintain them? Is it something that can be installed by nonprofessionals?
- imaginenore 11y ago
  If you think you're capable of installing something flat on the roof that can withstand strong winds, and then wire it into your house electric wiring without causing a short and killing everyone, why not? I can't imagine an average person doing this.
  - theothermkn 11y ago
    Scooby did it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQdaJCBWilw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQdaJCBWilw
- thinkcontext 11y ago
  If you are going to connect to the grid you need a licensed electrician. If you are not connected to the grid you will need a large battery bank and twice the number of panels to get you through night and cloudy days. This is not to mention building codes and making your insurance company happy.
- mooreds 11y ago
  I used SolarCity to finance, install and maintain. Not the cheapest solution, but they are taking care of everything for $0 out of pocket. Of course, I'm going to be paying interest for decades (and the loan has to be paid off or transfer with my house if I sell), but it is approximately the same per kwh cost, just to SolarCity instead of my utility, plus I can pay it off if I wish. Geez, on re-read, I didn't mean this to sound like an ad, but they make it so easy.
pdonis 11y ago
I assume you still have to buy electricity from the grid during times when the solar panels can't output enough power, correct? Can you give a sense of how long the payback time is for buying the panels--i.e., how long before you save more in not having to buy grid electricity for at least some fraction of the time, than you spent on the panels?
flashman 11y ago
Australian here. We'll trade you food for solar panels. Plenty of sunlight here, but panel adoption is slowed by the abundance of local coal.

Roboprog 11y ago

I live just outside the Sacramento area. Talking to a coworker, I was surprised to learn that SMUD's (Sac area utility) highest "tier" rate was just under PG&E's (most of the rest of CA) lowest "tier" rate. Once you use your "quota" of electricity (easy to do with kids), you move out of tier 1 base pricing ($0.18/kwh for PG&E) into tier 2, which is currently $0.25/kwh, then tier 3, then tier 4 (which I think is in the $0.35 to $0.40 range per kwh). So, putting in at least a partial system is a no brainer. If you look on the price map in the article, there is a pale colored blob around Sacramento, which reflects that SMUD's prices are a great deal less than PG&E's. I don't know that solar makes sense if you are on SMUD. During Spring break (nice sunny but not hot) weather, we generated a surplus (although we would not have if it were cloudy). I'm looking forward to being able to use the A/C this summer w/out getting a $300 to $400 electric bill.

pilom 11y ago

Hawaii is another great example. $0.40-$0.50/kWh for their oil generated electricity. Solar comes in even cheaper than the article mentions. There have been so many solar installations in Hawaii that the power company has effectively put a moratorium on installations that don't include storage because they can't cover the swings in demand when a cloud rolls through town. They expect things will get better once they install a connection between the islands to connect their grids, but for the moment, the power company can't handle the market penetration.

ZeroGravitas 11y ago
> the power company can't handle the market penetration. When it comes to solar power, and anything else with externalities, it's always best to be clear whether "can't" means "has no economic incentive to do so" or not. In this particular case I'd say we are below the optimum level of solar, and it's just poorly aligned incentives. edit: just to re-iterate this in clearer language: If they "can" do something if they spent $X million dollars, and $X million dollars is less than the total amount saved by the economy of Hawaii by doing so, then it's not a technical problem, it's an economic co-ordination problem. If the utility is going to lose money from doing something, because they can't capture all the resulting profit (like lower pollution meaning healthier people) then their employees will say they "can't" do something, as no-one gets promoted for making children healther on the utility shareholders dime. Even though they could if someone gave them the money. There's lots of BS surrounding solar, and a main thread of it is to pretend that it's going to blow up the electrical grid. The only thing it destroys is some current utility business models.
- zeta0134 11y ago
  Well, consider that the conditions are quite a bit different. With conventional power, you have a small number of sources (plants) and relatively slow, predictable swings in demand. Things like temperature changes throughout the day, or the end of rush hour and resulting spike in entertainment electronics usage. Contrast this with solar, with a large number of much smaller sources, and on top of the large predictable swings in demand, you add rapid, unpredictable swings in supply to the mix. That is a very different problem. It's solvable, just not using the same techniques and equipment that worked before.
- jcrawfordor 11y ago
  While there is certainly a market incentives problem, accomodating large quantities of rooftop solar does require infrastructure upgrades and an associated massive capital investment. It may not be practical for a relatively small island utility to do this on their own, even if it had a more clear ROI. Ultimately, some government support may be required here, since a fee on solar installations wouldn't be popular.

cli 11y ago

How difficult is it to install and maintain them? Is it something that can be installed by nonprofessionals?

imaginenore 11y ago
If you think you're capable of installing something flat on the roof that can withstand strong winds, and then wire it into your house electric wiring without causing a short and killing everyone, why not? I can't imagine an average person doing this.
- theothermkn 11y ago
  Scooby did it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQdaJCBWilw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQdaJCBWilw
thinkcontext 11y ago
If you are going to connect to the grid you need a licensed electrician. If you are not connected to the grid you will need a large battery bank and twice the number of panels to get you through night and cloudy days. This is not to mention building codes and making your insurance company happy.
mooreds 11y ago
I used SolarCity to finance, install and maintain. Not the cheapest solution, but they are taking care of everything for $0 out of pocket. Of course, I'm going to be paying interest for decades (and the loan has to be paid off or transfer with my house if I sell), but it is approximately the same per kwh cost, just to SolarCity instead of my utility, plus I can pay it off if I wish. Geez, on re-read, I didn't mean this to sound like an ad, but they make it so easy.

pdonis 11y ago

I assume you still have to buy electricity from the grid during times when the solar panels can't output enough power, correct? Can you give a sense of how long the payback time is for buying the panels--i.e., how long before you save more in not having to buy grid electricity for at least some fraction of the time, than you spent on the panels?

flashman 11y ago

Australian here. We'll trade you food for solar panels. Plenty of sunlight here, but panel adoption is slowed by the abundance of local coal.