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I find it clearer if you have 100 doors. Pick one. The host eliminates 98 doors [with no prize behind them]. Do you switch? Or do you stick with your original
by wrsh07 11y ago
I find it clearer if you have 100 doors. Pick one. The host eliminates 98 doors [with no prize behind them].
Do you switch? Or do you stick with your original guess? As the parent mentioned, switching gives you a 99/100 chance of being correct, staying gives you a mere 1/100 chance.
- ricardobeat 11y agoI don't see why the other door has 99x more probability of being correct. It's still 50/50, original door or remaining door, the other 98 don't change the odds.
- pklausler 11y agoYour initial pick has a 1/100 chance of being right. If you switch, and you were right, you lose. On the other hand, your initial pick has a 99/100 chance of being wrong, and if you were wrong, and you switch, you win. So switch.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- umanwizard 11y agoLet's play a game to make this more clear. I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 1000. First, guess what it is.
- cormacrelf 11y ago2
- umanwizard 11y agoWell, before you finalize your guess, I'll give you a hint: it's either 2, or 437. It's not any other number. Keep in mind I made my choice before we started, and it hasn't changed. Do you want to change your guess to 437, or stick with 2?
- yaur 11y agothe behavior of the game host as he will never reveal the door with the car this is the key bit. If the door you picked is the correct one (1% chance) the host can open any door. If you picked incorrectly (99% chance) he can open any door except the winning door so the remaining door will be the correct one 99% of the time.
- mettamage 11y agoThanks for clarifying a very counter intuitive problem. I always struggled with this one, not anymore :) Sometimes scaling things up is the best way to understand things. Who knew!