5 ms·

When the 80s ended I was 2. What happened when that ended with Japan? I'm genuinely not being sarcastic, I wouldn't have the faintest idea where to start looki

by delecti 11y ago

When the 80s ended I was 2. What happened when that ended with Japan? I'm genuinely not being sarcastic, I wouldn't have the faintest idea where to start looking for an answer to that question otherwise.

Spooky23 11y ago
Basically, they crashed and burned. This book and movie captures the paranoia that many Americans felt about Japan at that time. http://www.amazon.com/Rising-Sun-Michael-Crichton/dp/0099233010/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1459297051&sr=8-1&keywords=Rising+sun http://www.amazon.com/Rising-Sun-Michael-Crichton/dp/0099233...
dforrestwilson 11y ago
Here you go: http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2009/06/01/japans-stock-market-history-offers-us-a-cautionary http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2009/06/01/japans-stock-market-h... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble
noir_lord 11y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_%28Japan%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_%28Japan%29 is a good overview. In the west we have this opinion that an economy should under go the maximum amount of growth at all times and so from that perspective Japan looks like a basket case and yet they have a good standard of living, an excellent life expectancy and by most measures are a successful country. That said much of what happened in Japan is worth study in the greater world, the suppression of wages and the liquidity trap (their debt is 240% of GDP) have analogues in the western world.
- coliveira 11y ago
  > In the west we have this opinion that an economy should under go the maximum amount of growth at all times The main reason for this belief is that we have a distorted view of economy. For economists, business growth is the only thing that matters in a society. On the other hand, 99% of the people in a country don't really care about economic growth (above some basic comfort level of development, it must be said). This happens because most people live of wages, and wage growth is slow and sometimes non-existent (as presently in the US). The standard growth oriented view of economy is important only for investors (people making money in the stock market and bond market), and business owners. Normal people will live perfect fine lives as long as the economy is not imploding.
  - intrasight 11y ago
    Don't blame the economists - it is the Dismal Science after all. Economists just measure and model things. There is now more cross-fertilization with Social Science in trying to measure "intangibles" like happiness. Internet and social media are making it much more scientific to measure such things. It is politicians and developers who put a value-judgement on growth - specifically GDP growth. And they are perfectly rational in doing so. In most jurisdictions the developers hire the politicians and so they adopt that value-judgement. The other 99.9% of the constituents are largely ignored on this topic.
- emodendroket 11y ago
  Japan is also facing a demographic crisis that is probably not helped by the inability of young people to find jobs that would allow them to support a family.
krrrh 11y ago
This is a good start: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan) It's also interesting to review old films and media from the late eighties (Gung Ho, and Die Hard). It's hard to comprehend if you didn't live through it, but there was a massive level of anxiety in the US that Japanese business culture and management prowess was going to be impossible for the US to overcome, and that th US was in decline. The Asset bubble in Japan was so insane that at one point the nominal value of the Imperial Palace was equal to the value of all property in the state of California. Aother good Wikipedia article to read is this one: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble
- hkmurakami 11y ago
  I think we can say that the "lost decade" has extended itself to a "lost 25 years"
  - w1ntermute 11y ago
    It'll soon be the lost 3 decades, the way things are going[0]. 0: http://blogos.com/article/104198/ http://blogos.com/article/104198/
  - exwardna 11y ago
    If the "lost" decade refers to the sluggish growth of Japan starting beginning of the century, let's not forget that Japanese population growth has been negative for a while. The per capita economic performance of the country is much less lost in that regard.
    - hkmurakami 11y ago
      fwiw it started in the 90's.
- ghaff 11y ago
  Also the whole structure and relationships associated with Japanese businesses and the government and like, e.g. MITI [1]. I went to business school in the mid-eighties and I remember any number of articles and visiting lecturers arguing for how the US had to emulate Japanese industrial policy and planning or we were doomed. Certainly there was also significant attention to some of the more specific processes and practices associated with Japanese manufacturing (and far less to US manufacturing) at the time, which have been largely proven out. (And are arguably being reflected in a lot of modern DevOps software practices.) However, a lot of notable economists and others were also calling for much more systematic cooperation/planning between government and companies (especially manufacturers). Sematech was an example from the semiconductor industry. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_International_Trade_and_Industry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_International_Trad...
chvid 11y ago
I think there are multiple explanations; here are some common ones: - When a country is completely modernized its growth tends to plateau; no good investments left (in say infrastructure, health, education and so). - The Japanese Yen got too strong. Japan got stiffed at the plaza accord. After the 2nd world war it took 300 JPY to buy one USD. Today it hovers around 100. - Japan's skewed demographics. Too many elderly. Too few young. Little immigration. - Japan's conservatism. I.e big consumer electronics giants unable to transition into software companies. - Too much debt. Economy caught in a debt deflation / liquidity trap. - Competition from Taiwan, South Korea, China. - The big bubble was never allowed to pop and clear. Leaving zombie companies, slowly falling asset prices, bad debt for many decades ...

by delecti 11y ago

Spooky23 11y ago

Basically, they crashed and burned. This book and movie captures the paranoia that many Americans felt about Japan at that time. http://www.amazon.com/Rising-Sun-Michael-Crichton/dp/0099233010/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1459297051&sr=8-1&keywords=Rising+sun http://www.amazon.com/Rising-Sun-Michael-Crichton/dp/0099233...

dforrestwilson 11y ago

Here you go: http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2009/06/01/japans-stock-market-history-offers-us-a-cautionary http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2009/06/01/japans-stock-market-h... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

noir_lord 11y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_%28Japan%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_%28Japan%29 is a good overview. In the west we have this opinion that an economy should under go the maximum amount of growth at all times and so from that perspective Japan looks like a basket case and yet they have a good standard of living, an excellent life expectancy and by most measures are a successful country. That said much of what happened in Japan is worth study in the greater world, the suppression of wages and the liquidity trap (their debt is 240% of GDP) have analogues in the western world.

coliveira 11y ago
> In the west we have this opinion that an economy should under go the maximum amount of growth at all times The main reason for this belief is that we have a distorted view of economy. For economists, business growth is the only thing that matters in a society. On the other hand, 99% of the people in a country don't really care about economic growth (above some basic comfort level of development, it must be said). This happens because most people live of wages, and wage growth is slow and sometimes non-existent (as presently in the US). The standard growth oriented view of economy is important only for investors (people making money in the stock market and bond market), and business owners. Normal people will live perfect fine lives as long as the economy is not imploding.
- intrasight 11y ago
  Don't blame the economists - it is the Dismal Science after all. Economists just measure and model things. There is now more cross-fertilization with Social Science in trying to measure "intangibles" like happiness. Internet and social media are making it much more scientific to measure such things. It is politicians and developers who put a value-judgement on growth - specifically GDP growth. And they are perfectly rational in doing so. In most jurisdictions the developers hire the politicians and so they adopt that value-judgement. The other 99.9% of the constituents are largely ignored on this topic.
emodendroket 11y ago
Japan is also facing a demographic crisis that is probably not helped by the inability of young people to find jobs that would allow them to support a family.

krrrh 11y ago

This is a good start: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan) It's also interesting to review old films and media from the late eighties (Gung Ho, and Die Hard). It's hard to comprehend if you didn't live through it, but there was a massive level of anxiety in the US that Japanese business culture and management prowess was going to be impossible for the US to overcome, and that th US was in decline. The Asset bubble in Japan was so insane that at one point the nominal value of the Imperial Palace was equal to the value of all property in the state of California. Aother good Wikipedia article to read is this one: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

hkmurakami 11y ago
I think we can say that the "lost decade" has extended itself to a "lost 25 years"
- w1ntermute 11y ago
  It'll soon be the lost 3 decades, the way things are going[0]. 0: http://blogos.com/article/104198/ http://blogos.com/article/104198/
- exwardna 11y ago
  If the "lost" decade refers to the sluggish growth of Japan starting beginning of the century, let's not forget that Japanese population growth has been negative for a while. The per capita economic performance of the country is much less lost in that regard.
  - hkmurakami 11y ago
    fwiw it started in the 90's.
ghaff 11y ago
Also the whole structure and relationships associated with Japanese businesses and the government and like, e.g. MITI [1]. I went to business school in the mid-eighties and I remember any number of articles and visiting lecturers arguing for how the US had to emulate Japanese industrial policy and planning or we were doomed. Certainly there was also significant attention to some of the more specific processes and practices associated with Japanese manufacturing (and far less to US manufacturing) at the time, which have been largely proven out. (And are arguably being reflected in a lot of modern DevOps software practices.) However, a lot of notable economists and others were also calling for much more systematic cooperation/planning between government and companies (especially manufacturers). Sematech was an example from the semiconductor industry. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_International_Trade_and_Industry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_International_Trad...

chvid 11y ago

I think there are multiple explanations; here are some common ones: - When a country is completely modernized its growth tends to plateau; no good investments left (in say infrastructure, health, education and so). - The Japanese Yen got too strong. Japan got stiffed at the plaza accord. After the 2nd world war it took 300 JPY to buy one USD. Today it hovers around 100. - Japan's skewed demographics. Too many elderly. Too few young. Little immigration. - Japan's conservatism. I.e big consumer electronics giants unable to transition into software companies. - Too much debt. Economy caught in a debt deflation / liquidity trap. - Competition from Taiwan, South Korea, China. - The big bubble was never allowed to pop and clear. Leaving zombie companies, slowly falling asset prices, bad debt for many decades ...