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This is my thinking as well. Everyone worries about robots taking their jobs in the future, but we've had "robots" since office automation began in the 70s and

This is my thinking as well. Everyone worries about robots taking their jobs in the future, but we've had "robots" since office automation began in the 70s and 80s. Its a bit more obvious in the blue collar sector where a literal robot can take your welding job or whatever, but in the white collar sector, its still the same. There's so much more efficiency that people aren't in high demand anymore. It used to be even a "small" company was a few dozen people. Everyone needed an assistant, you had a whole team of people to do graphic work, a whole team of people to make copies, etc. That's a pretty far cry from a handful of people, a handful of computers, and a decent laser copier. There's no fix here. The genie is out of the bottle from an economic perspective. We just have this long slog ahead of us of working with this new reality. I imagine things like guaranteed minimum income will be the fix here as these jobs are never coming back, nor will new jobs come and replace them as things become more and more efficient.

maxerickson 11y ago
Between 1970 and 2000 there was also a massive expansion of the global workforce. Both in absolute numbers and in the percentage of the planet that was participating in global markets. In many countries, women started working a lot more in that period. Other countries entered the global market (notably hundreds of millions of Indians and Chinese). People talk about the rise of Africa being the next cheap source of labor, but that is a smaller number of people that is less uniformly educated than the above cohorts. I don't think it is really all that strange that wages stagnated where they started out the highest. Maybe we in the US are actually on track for things to get better rather than worse.
- ThomPete 11y ago
  The US is in just as bad shape. Many of the jobs created are actually freelance jobs which means no healthcare plans, more temp work less money (because more competitition) The app market is a good example of a market where it looks like all this value is created, the problem is when you then look at who actually make a living there it's very few people. This is the reality everywhere. Uber is working on replacing their drivers. Truck Driver is the most common job in a majority of US states. What do you think is going to happen to them when trucks don't need them anymore.
  - maxerickson 11y ago
    There's ~ 2 million truck drivers in the US. In 1970, the US work force was ~100 million. Today it is ~150 million (~140 million in 2000). My point isn't that things will be great tomorrow, it's that there were some really huge forces at work in recent decades too. Compared to the number of jobs created just in the US in the last 1/2 century, 2 million truckers isn't that big a deal (and there were hundreds of millions of jobs created outside the US too). Of course it is individually a big deal to those truckers if they cannot find new jobs with equivalent pay, but I'm trying to take a step back and decide how much impact it will have on the broader economy.
    - ThomPete 11y ago
      First of all Truck Drivers are just fraction of the drivers fleet. There are cab drivers, schoolbus drivers and so one. The number is much higher. Second of all you need to factor in that many of those jobs are not actually providing a full salary but are instead temp jobs with no special security attached to them. Thirdly. The use keeps moving the goalpost on what they consider a job. A job is not just a job. It comes with an income. An income which for most people is decreasing or stagnating. http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-the-most-common-job-in-every-state http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-t...

maxerickson 11y ago

Between 1970 and 2000 there was also a massive expansion of the global workforce. Both in absolute numbers and in the percentage of the planet that was participating in global markets. In many countries, women started working a lot more in that period. Other countries entered the global market (notably hundreds of millions of Indians and Chinese). People talk about the rise of Africa being the next cheap source of labor, but that is a smaller number of people that is less uniformly educated than the above cohorts. I don't think it is really all that strange that wages stagnated where they started out the highest. Maybe we in the US are actually on track for things to get better rather than worse.

ThomPete 11y ago
The US is in just as bad shape. Many of the jobs created are actually freelance jobs which means no healthcare plans, more temp work less money (because more competitition) The app market is a good example of a market where it looks like all this value is created, the problem is when you then look at who actually make a living there it's very few people. This is the reality everywhere. Uber is working on replacing their drivers. Truck Driver is the most common job in a majority of US states. What do you think is going to happen to them when trucks don't need them anymore.
- maxerickson 11y ago
  There's ~ 2 million truck drivers in the US. In 1970, the US work force was ~100 million. Today it is ~150 million (~140 million in 2000). My point isn't that things will be great tomorrow, it's that there were some really huge forces at work in recent decades too. Compared to the number of jobs created just in the US in the last 1/2 century, 2 million truckers isn't that big a deal (and there were hundreds of millions of jobs created outside the US too). Of course it is individually a big deal to those truckers if they cannot find new jobs with equivalent pay, but I'm trying to take a step back and decide how much impact it will have on the broader economy.
  - ThomPete 11y ago
    First of all Truck Drivers are just fraction of the drivers fleet. There are cab drivers, schoolbus drivers and so one. The number is much higher. Second of all you need to factor in that many of those jobs are not actually providing a full salary but are instead temp jobs with no special security attached to them. Thirdly. The use keeps moving the goalpost on what they consider a job. A job is not just a job. It comes with an income. An income which for most people is decreasing or stagnating. http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-the-most-common-job-in-every-state http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-t...