5 ms·
The growth in hard drive space is called Kryder's Law [0] (like Moore's law). There's a paper from 2012 on the cost of long-term storage [1].. and here's a quot
by rgbrenner 11y ago
The growth in hard drive space is called Kryder's Law [0] (like Moore's law). There's a paper from 2012 on the cost of long-term storage [1].. and here's a quote from the researchers blog[2]:
Here is a graph I got from Dave Anderson [director of strategic planning at Seagate] years ago. It shows that what looks like a smooth Kryder's Law curve is actually the superposition of a series of S-curves, one for each successive technology generation. Naturally, because the easy transitions get done first, the cost of each successive transition increases, perhaps even exponentially. Since margins are constrained and so, these days, are volumes, to generate a return on the investment in each transition requires that the technology be kept in the market longer. The longer interval between transitions translates to a lower Kryder rate.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bkuDDrBpcZE/TpMsLTEspsI/AAAAAAAAA94/a-sL-tSO-OQ/s1600/DaveAnderson.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bkuDDrBpcZE/TpMsLTEspsI/AAAAAAAAA9...
0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Kryder https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Kryder
1. http://www.lockss.org/locksswp/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/unesco2012.pdf http://www.lockss.org/locksswp/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/un...
2. http://blog.dshr.org/2012/10/storage-will-be-lot-less-free-than-it.html http://blog.dshr.org/2012/10/storage-will-be-lot-less-free-t...
- jsprogrammer 11y agoSo, the rate if increase (in density) is slowed by lack of demand for storage?
- rgbrenner 11y agoSure, that's at least part of it.. since if demand is lower, that increases the time required to recoup the investment on new storage technology.
- Razengan 11y ago> lack of demand for storage and in turn, demand for storage is slowed by lack of need for storage. The real question should be: Where's my 4K video? My 10-bit-channel images? My lossless audio? Yes they are here but not nearly as common as content delivered in ancient formats from over a decade ago. For example go on a wallpapers subreddit, the vast majority is still in 8-bit 1920x1080 JPEG. Video is still mostly 1080. The leading music services still deliver in 2-channel lossy formats. And this is 2016. Most of this I suppose is because of the general slowness of the internet and the usage caps in many areas of the world. So maybe improve internet service -> create more detailed content and let people save it -> people will want to demand more storage to store all that in.
- douche 11y agoFor a lot of things, that extra resolution is not really any benefit. Particularly for content that wasn't ever recorded at that level of fidelity anyway - I don't need 4k versions of Seinfeld re-runs, or SpongeBob SquarePants for the kiddos. Most of that stuff doesn't even need to be 720p. Besides, pirated video content was really the only thing that most normal people could fill up their hard drives with (okay, maybe GoPro people or people with huge Steam libraries, too), but the Netflix and YouTube and Amazon Prime have taken a huge chunk out of that.
- Houshalter 11y agoYes that's an important point. There are diminishing returns with better resolutions. Twice the resolution doesn't mean it appears twice as good, and at higher resolutions it can even be hard to tell. At some point you exceed the resolution of the human eye and ear. But I think storage space still matters on mobile. I haven't come close to filling up my laptop after 4 years of use, but I have to be careful about putting stuff on my iPod. Still it can store dozens of hours of audio, so it's not the biggest issue.
- roywiggins 11y agoAlso people who shoot raw photos. They're like 35MB each, an order of magnitude bigger than jpegs. They can eat up gigabytes (though to be fair, not terabytes) pretty fast. I have about 525GB of photos and videos that I've taken over years. Something like 300GB is jpegs. If I'd exclusively shot raw files I would need 3-4TB to store everything.
- LoSboccacc 11y agoAlso form factor is getting smaller
- scottlocklin 11y agoFWIIW; worked in Kryder's lab at Hammerschlag Hall as an undergraduate in the 90s: he's one of the best people I've met in the sciences. The E.O. Lawrence of hard drive technology.