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My original point stands. We haven't observed vN-B probes. This negative result is useful in a Bayesian way; it makes it less likely that the galaxy is full of
by pklausler 11y ago
My original point stands. We haven't observed vN-B probes. This negative result is useful in a Bayesian way; it makes it less likely that the galaxy is full of tech civilizations, and makes other possibilities more likely, including several that you mentioned in a needlessly belligerent fashion.
- fergussimpson 11y agoAh, but take a look at this chart: https://xkcd.com/1633/ https://xkcd.com/1633/ For anything more than 10^6 km away and less than 10 metres in size, we just wouldn't see it. We have only just noticed some enormous lumps on Ceres, and it seems a whole planet has evaded detection until now. I don't think it's particularly likely we will find a vN probe. But to consider their non-detection to be of statistical significance is, I think, an overestimation of our technological capabilities.
- pklausler 11y agovN-B probes are not passive objects. They would have observable effects from mining and propulsion, at least.