4 ms·

Isn't it already happening. If you put a population of flies in a closed container, even with an unlimited food supply, their population will grow and grow unt

Isn't it already happening. If you put a population of flies in a closed container, even with an unlimited food supply, their population will grow and grow until it hits a peak and collapases. We are smarter than flies but to think we are not also constrained by nature is folly?

hueving 11y ago
The only reason the fly colony would collapse is if it ran out of a resource. No point in giving them an unlimited food supply because it's a resource like any other.
- sp332 11y ago
  That's exactly the point. Sooner or later, human consumption is going to hit a wall.
  - mozumder 11y ago
    Why would that happen? Where is the actual limit to anything? If we run out of land, we take the sea. If we run out of sea, we take space. And so on.
    - gnaritas 11y ago
      > If we run out of land, we take the sea. If we run out of sea, we take space. And so on. This answer precludes the very real possibility that the necessary technology advances to "take the sea" or "go into space" don't come in time to be useful. Any plan that includes "things that haven't been invented yet" isn't a real plan, it's wishful thinking.
- KannO 11y ago
  Humans are more complex than flies and social atmosphere would need to be healthy relative to dramatic population sizes. John B. Calhorn's mouse utopia experiments give some indication of complexity in large communities beyond food resources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Calhoun#Mouse_experiments https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Calhoun#Mouse_experime... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Z760XNy4VM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Z760XNy4VM There was no shortage of food or water or nesting material. There were no predators. The only adversity was the limit on space. Initially the population grew rapidly, doubling every 55 days. The population reached 620 by day 315, after which the population growth dropped markedly. The last surviving birth was on day 600. This period between day 315 and day 600 saw a breakdown in social structure and in normal social behavior. Among the aberrations in behavior were the following: expulsion of young before weaning was complete, wounding of young, increase in homosexual behavior, inability of dominant males to maintain the defense of their territory and females, aggressive behavior of females, passivity of non-dominant males with increased attacks on each other which were not defended against.[2] After day 600, the social breakdown continued and the population declined toward extinction. During this period females ceased to reproduce. Their male counterparts withdrew completely, never engaging in courtship or fighting. They ate, drank, slept, and groomed themselves – all solitary pursuits. Sleek, healthy coats and an absence of scars characterized these males. They were dubbed “the beautiful ones.” Breeding never resumed and behavior patterns were permanently changed.
zo1 11y ago
No one denies that we are constrained by nature and limited resources. There are two things that preclude your hypothetical "collapse" event from happening. 1. Scientific discovery and innovation. People were all in huge panic in the 17/18/19th century about the ability of our limited amount of land to feed the (exponentially-growing) populace, yet discovery of new methods/technologies increased the hypothetical yield such that the point became moot. 2. We live in a feedback-loop system. In the absence of perverse (and universal) government incentives, society will slow-down as resources become scarce. That is, until point number 1 kicks in again and the cycle starts fresh.
- sp332 11y ago
  I don't see how you're ignoring all the countries that have had economies collapse. It's not impossible.
  - XorNot 11y ago
    No but it does tend to take a fairly dedicated effort to be stupid about your economy.
  - zo1 11y ago
    We're discussing a very specific type of economic collapse; one due to runaway growth and exhaustion of space/resources. If you have an example of that specific type of 'collapse' happening, I'd be most curious?
mozumder 11y ago
A closed system can grow as long as consumption becomes more efficient over time.

hueving 11y ago

The only reason the fly colony would collapse is if it ran out of a resource. No point in giving them an unlimited food supply because it's a resource like any other.

sp332 11y ago
That's exactly the point. Sooner or later, human consumption is going to hit a wall.
- mozumder 11y ago
  Why would that happen? Where is the actual limit to anything? If we run out of land, we take the sea. If we run out of sea, we take space. And so on.
  - gnaritas 11y ago
    > If we run out of land, we take the sea. If we run out of sea, we take space. And so on. This answer precludes the very real possibility that the necessary technology advances to "take the sea" or "go into space" don't come in time to be useful. Any plan that includes "things that haven't been invented yet" isn't a real plan, it's wishful thinking.
KannO 11y ago
Humans are more complex than flies and social atmosphere would need to be healthy relative to dramatic population sizes. John B. Calhorn's mouse utopia experiments give some indication of complexity in large communities beyond food resources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Calhoun#Mouse_experiments https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_B._Calhoun#Mouse_experime... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Z760XNy4VM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Z760XNy4VM There was no shortage of food or water or nesting material. There were no predators. The only adversity was the limit on space. Initially the population grew rapidly, doubling every 55 days. The population reached 620 by day 315, after which the population growth dropped markedly. The last surviving birth was on day 600. This period between day 315 and day 600 saw a breakdown in social structure and in normal social behavior. Among the aberrations in behavior were the following: expulsion of young before weaning was complete, wounding of young, increase in homosexual behavior, inability of dominant males to maintain the defense of their territory and females, aggressive behavior of females, passivity of non-dominant males with increased attacks on each other which were not defended against.[2] After day 600, the social breakdown continued and the population declined toward extinction. During this period females ceased to reproduce. Their male counterparts withdrew completely, never engaging in courtship or fighting. They ate, drank, slept, and groomed themselves – all solitary pursuits. Sleek, healthy coats and an absence of scars characterized these males. They were dubbed “the beautiful ones.” Breeding never resumed and behavior patterns were permanently changed.

zo1 11y ago

No one denies that we are constrained by nature and limited resources. There are two things that preclude your hypothetical "collapse" event from happening. 1. Scientific discovery and innovation. People were all in huge panic in the 17/18/19th century about the ability of our limited amount of land to feed the (exponentially-growing) populace, yet discovery of new methods/technologies increased the hypothetical yield such that the point became moot. 2. We live in a feedback-loop system. In the absence of perverse (and universal) government incentives, society will slow-down as resources become scarce. That is, until point number 1 kicks in again and the cycle starts fresh.

sp332 11y ago
I don't see how you're ignoring all the countries that have had economies collapse. It's not impossible.
- XorNot 11y ago
  No but it does tend to take a fairly dedicated effort to be stupid about your economy.
- zo1 11y ago
  We're discussing a very specific type of economic collapse; one due to runaway growth and exhaustion of space/resources. If you have an example of that specific type of 'collapse' happening, I'd be most curious?

mozumder 11y ago

A closed system can grow as long as consumption becomes more efficient over time.