The article's basic assumptions are wrong. Money is flowing out of private investment, so they just assume it's flowing into index funds. However ... Index fund

The article's basic assumptions are wrong. Money is flowing out of private investment, so they just assume it's flowing into index funds. However ... Index funds doesn't seem to be where it's going. SPY lost 15% or more in Feb, and then recovered to only be down 5.5%. Before that a similar thing happened around new year. The trend appears to be down (in the sense that the second massive drop fell to a lower level than the first, and doesn't appear to be recovering the level the first recovered to), and a lot of banks are saying that people should sell the recovery. And if you prefer non-technical arguments : stocks in the S&P 500 are trading at a GAAP EPS multiple of ~21. Whilst that is actually a bit of a drop from before, that's still a >98% percentile for the multiple. "Normal" multiple is 16, which would have the S&P 500 trading at ~1550, and generally if you believe in mean reversal you'd expect it to drop below that before improving. Additionally the fed is raising rates, and that has always resulted in stock market drops. And all of this is assuming there isn't something more serious happening (global shipping has dropped double digit percentages since last year, which would seem to indicate a very serious issue, especially in Asia). I'm thinking there is a general outflow out of the stock market entirely. Index funds and everything. I would even bet that private investments are dropping, partly because quite a bit of investment advisors are telling people to get out of the market.