3 ms·
The public seeing something as a -3 to 2 level of severity while scientists seeing something as a 9 or 11 seems to be the standard way science and public policy
by manachar 11y ago
The public seeing something as a -3 to 2 level of severity while scientists seeing something as a 9 or 11 seems to be the standard way science and public policy interact.
1. Scientists potentially find $somethingBad in the world.
2. The world mostly doesn't pay attention, especially if the $somethingBad makes someone money.
3. More scientists investigate and start fleshing out the $somethingBad as a genuine concern.
4. Industry related to $somethingBad dumps money into science that refutes $somethingBad. Such science seems to be unable to refute $somethingBad completely, so it start nit-picking and fostering doubt.
5. $somethingBad becomes a political issue, with industry calling for more study and focusing on doubting the severity of $somethingBad.
6. Hollywood makes a movie about $somethingBad. It wins an award despite taking creative liberties in describing $somethingBad. Those creative liberties are lampooned by those who don't think $somethingBad is real.
7. Politics either continues at step 5 or finally manages to pass some laws.
We've seen this with leaded gasoline, clean air/water, endangered species, tobacco, marijuana prohibition, asbestos, seatbelts, etc.
Maybe it's just the way democracy handles it. The downside is that scientists who overstate the case with conviction tend to garner more of the headlines.
The probabilistic truths of science just don't survive the onslaught of criticism from entrenched interests.