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I have a lot of sympathy for what Hansen is doing. He absolutely is going out on a limb, scientifically speaking, and using PR tactics to generate mainstream me
by themgt 11y ago
I have a lot of sympathy for what Hansen is doing. He absolutely is going out on a limb, scientifically speaking, and using PR tactics to generate mainstream media coverage for his research.
At the same time, nearly all the critical responses here acknowledge what he is saying is within the realm of possibility. They mainly argue it's not a proven or likely outcome. Which may be true.
But I think climate science, maybe science more generally, needs to ask itself some existential questions here. We're not talking about the need for 5-sigma confidence before announcing the Higgs Boson here. We're talking about the future of the planet and human civilization. So to what extent should climate scientists do their best to really hammer home to the public the range of possible outcomes, and specifically how bad things conceivably could go, how much we can't say for sure?
In part I think climate scientists specifically have learned to be extremely cautious in what's stated publicly, because of the amount of firepower directed towards discrediting them.
But what Hansen himself stresses is that "the major scientific issue that exists is how rapidly ice sheets can respond to the unprecedented human-made climate forcing, not whether they will respond. In our present paper we present substantial, compelling evidence that the ice sheet response will be non-linear and more rapid than has generally been acknowledged."
This statement I think is much harder to argue, and almost certainly most climate scientists who have studied the issue would agree, if only in private, that the IPCC predictions for sea-level rise are likely to be far more conservative and linear than what emerging science regarding paleoclimate, ice sheet dynamics like hydrofracturing, the geomorphology of Greenland and WAIS especially, ocean circulation, etc are indicating will actually happen.
The ice sheet melt rate was predicted to be relatively linear prior to detailed modeling of the specific dynamics in play. The more we understand about the details, the worse the situation looks, and Hansen is one of the first to try to pull those threads together and look anew at the big picture.
- reitanqild 11y agoThe piece linked to seems to tear apart the paper based on specific assumptions Hansen et al took to arrive at what seems to be the preferred result. > So to what extent should climate scientists do their best to really hammer home to the public the range of possible outcomes, and specifically how bad things conceivably could go, how much we can't say for sure? To take this to its logicl conclusion: feel free to lie as long as it is for the greater good... Not sure I want to follow you there. Scientists, engineers and a few others are supposed to tell the truth, not just what "management" or the public wants to hear.
- themgt 11y agoDid you read his actual reviews? It's not exactly "tear apart": http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd-15-20059-2015-RR1.pdf http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd-15... http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd-15-20059-2015-RR1.pdf http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd-15...