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No, because the issue here isn't whether there is a desire for the product, which is what the LOI demonstrates, it is whether the product can be built. Put ano

No, because the issue here isn't whether there is a desire for the product, which is what the LOI demonstrates, it is whether the product can be built. Put another way, Boom won't have trouble selling their plane if they manage to build it, and the only point of the LOI is to put Virgin and Boom on the front page of every news outlet tomorrow.

nostrademons 11y ago
It's the issue to us, who are random bystanders on an Internet forum without any skin in the game. It may not be the issue for other key resources that Boom will need to accomplish this. Imagine you were an aeronautical engineer inside, say, Boeing who had discovered a way to control or reduce the sonic boom generated by a supersonic aircraft. You can't get permission from your boss to investigate this further and run actual field trials - the higher-ups have already decided that Boeing is not going to be in the SST business, so why waste money on it? You have a family to feed and only one life to live, so if you jump ship to another job, it better be one where your invention will actually make it to market. By getting LOIs from customers, Boom has something to show to both investors and prospective hires so that the portion of the risk that is outside of their control is mitigated. That matters a lot - as an engineer, one critical thing I look for when joining a company is whether the founders and salespeople are doing their job and ensuring that my work will actually be valuable to customers. Remember that different people all have different pieces of the puzzle. I'm a random HN reader, I neither know nor care much about aviation. Someone who does know a lot about aeronautical engineering is a rather critical part of Boom's story, however, and may have a much better picture of the technical risks involved, and if such a person exists and believes they have a technical solution, demonstrating that you've solved the market & financing risks is a huge selling point for bringing them on board.
- foobarqux 11y ago
  There is no risk in terms of demand for the product at the target price, just like there isn't a risk for demand for cold-fusion or, as someone else here suggested, a cure for cancer. It is true that the LOI serves a marketing purpose, which is why it was created.
notahacker 11y ago
I argued yesterday that Boom would probably have more trouble selling a supersonic aircraft in sufficient quantities to break even than building it, and I haven't changed my mind. I think you're quite right about the LOI mostly being for the publicity, but from the opposite perspective: I don't think the market for a new player offering a product highly specialised towards transatlantic all premium flights is actually that big, and enthusiastic noises made by an airline run by the British equivalent of Elon Musk who made similar noises about resurrecting Concorde doesn't really change that. (Related prediction: the undisclosed LOI turns out to be from Odyssey Airlines whose proposed business model is perfectly suited to supersonic business class jets, but at present have nothing but a massive binding commitment with Bombardier and some small change from crowdfunders.)
- jpatokal 11y ago
  For anybody else needing more context for the last paragraph: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odyssey_Airlines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odyssey_Airlines
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]

nostrademons 11y ago

It's the issue to us, who are random bystanders on an Internet forum without any skin in the game. It may not be the issue for other key resources that Boom will need to accomplish this. Imagine you were an aeronautical engineer inside, say, Boeing who had discovered a way to control or reduce the sonic boom generated by a supersonic aircraft. You can't get permission from your boss to investigate this further and run actual field trials - the higher-ups have already decided that Boeing is not going to be in the SST business, so why waste money on it? You have a family to feed and only one life to live, so if you jump ship to another job, it better be one where your invention will actually make it to market. By getting LOIs from customers, Boom has something to show to both investors and prospective hires so that the portion of the risk that is outside of their control is mitigated. That matters a lot - as an engineer, one critical thing I look for when joining a company is whether the founders and salespeople are doing their job and ensuring that my work will actually be valuable to customers. Remember that different people all have different pieces of the puzzle. I'm a random HN reader, I neither know nor care much about aviation. Someone who does know a lot about aeronautical engineering is a rather critical part of Boom's story, however, and may have a much better picture of the technical risks involved, and if such a person exists and believes they have a technical solution, demonstrating that you've solved the market & financing risks is a huge selling point for bringing them on board.

foobarqux 11y ago
There is no risk in terms of demand for the product at the target price, just like there isn't a risk for demand for cold-fusion or, as someone else here suggested, a cure for cancer. It is true that the LOI serves a marketing purpose, which is why it was created.

notahacker 11y ago

I argued yesterday that Boom would probably have more trouble selling a supersonic aircraft in sufficient quantities to break even than building it, and I haven't changed my mind. I think you're quite right about the LOI mostly being for the publicity, but from the opposite perspective: I don't think the market for a new player offering a product highly specialised towards transatlantic all premium flights is actually that big, and enthusiastic noises made by an airline run by the British equivalent of Elon Musk who made similar noises about resurrecting Concorde doesn't really change that. (Related prediction: the undisclosed LOI turns out to be from Odyssey Airlines whose proposed business model is perfectly suited to supersonic business class jets, but at present have nothing but a massive binding commitment with Bombardier and some small change from crowdfunders.)

jpatokal 11y ago
For anybody else needing more context for the last paragraph: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odyssey_Airlines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odyssey_Airlines
deleted 11y ago
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