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This is such a skewed portrait I would've thought you were looking through a fisheye lens. You're making it sound as if Tesla is riding the edge of bankruptcy,

This is such a skewed portrait I would've thought you were looking through a fisheye lens. You're making it sound as if Tesla is riding the edge of bankruptcy, and Elon Musk is up late fretting over spreadsheets wondering where he'll find the money to make payroll. On the contrary to your unsourced assertion that they won't be profitable until 2020, he just said in the last quarterly investors' call that Tesla was likely to be profitable this year. [1] As for "burning through massive amounts of cash," again you're making it sound like money is just slipping through their fingers with no return. This is such a misleading sentence on its own. Yes, they have enormous capital expenditures because they're doing something extremely difficult that requires the construction of enormous facilities and requires immense amounts of engineering work. And by all accounts, given that they're now selling about 50,000 cards a year (sorry, how many were they selling two years ago? four years ago? looks like the number is going up) and given the reviews of the S and the X, they're doing a superb job delivering results from those expenditures. Their expenditures are not "out of control" nor unplanned-- they're spending exactly what they need to in order to accomplish a near-impossible goal. Given where they've gone from 2009 to 2016, you think that between now and 2020 it's all going to collapse in on itself, the Model 3 will reveal itself to be a poorly designed flop that few will buy, or they'll find themselves unable to actually manufacture it? Where exactly are you seeing evidence of a downward trend or a failure waiting to happen? You sound like one of those people on the radio that proclaim apocalyptic double-meaning in random numbers they've taken out of the Bible. [1] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-results-idUSKCN0VJ2J6 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-results-idUSKCN0VJ2J...

rjdagost 11y ago
Keep a few things in mind about Musk's prediction of profitability. First, he is talking about non-GAAP profitability for this year. He doesn't predict true GAAP profitability for a few more years, maybe by 2020. Second, he has blown many previous predictions about achieving profitability and being cash flow positive, so many investors are rightfully skeptical about this new prediction as well.
- aerovistae 11y ago
  You are quite right, and this is by design. I believe all the evidence points to this not mattering any more than Amazon's profitability has mattered. Tesla has its eye on something bigger and longer term than narrow early quarterly profits. In the meantime, Elon is indeed saying whatever he has to to keep investors from losing their shit with impatience over a startup that's been working for over a decade without having transformed the world yet-- they've grown too accustomed to Dropbox's and Facebooks. If he let them speculate wildly without occasionally throwing them a bone, he would end up with a feedback cycle of bad press for no reason-- an analyst would downgrade Tesla for [some reason], a hundred articles would be written with titles like "Is this the end of Tesla?", and the cycle repeats. This is what he's keeping at bay while they prepare their grand slam.
FireBeyond 11y ago
"Given where they've gone from 2009 to 2016, you think that between now and 2020 it's all going to collapse in on itself, the Model 3 will reveal itself to be a poorly designed flop that few will buy, or they'll find themselves unable to actually manufacture it? Where exactly are you seeing evidence of a downward trend or a failure waiting to happen?" Whereas in contrast you're considering evidence of Tesla's somewhat success in the high end market as an ironclad guarantee that it's not possible that the 3 could be a flop in a -vastly- different market.
- aerovistae 11y ago
  I think "somewhat success" is a vast understatement as they're outselling all competing vehicles. That would be impressive for a new ICE manufacturer, but to have successfully created the technical and team infrastructure to make this possible is astonishing-- the service stations across the nation, a massive supercharging network, home delivery service nationally, etc. I personally do believe their success is assured-- their success thus far combined with Elon's past and simultaneous other accomplishments seem to me as the very definition of ironclad evidence that this man achieves what he sets out to do. I just can't picture headlines in 5 years reading "How the man who landed the first rockets failed the auto industry." It just seems far-fetched. And I don't think the market is as vastly different as you believe. At both levels you have people with money who want something shiny. And there are more people with $40k than there are people with $90k. Time will tell.
pfarnsworth 11y ago
It sounds like you are a fanboi and have no idea how to read a financial statement. That's fine, you're allowed to believe whatever you want. It also sounds like you didn't read what I wrote carefully though, you just immediately white-knighted for poor Elon Musk when someone dared to say that Tesla isn't the greatest company in the world.

rjdagost 11y ago

Keep a few things in mind about Musk's prediction of profitability. First, he is talking about non-GAAP profitability for this year. He doesn't predict true GAAP profitability for a few more years, maybe by 2020. Second, he has blown many previous predictions about achieving profitability and being cash flow positive, so many investors are rightfully skeptical about this new prediction as well.

aerovistae 11y ago
You are quite right, and this is by design. I believe all the evidence points to this not mattering any more than Amazon's profitability has mattered. Tesla has its eye on something bigger and longer term than narrow early quarterly profits. In the meantime, Elon is indeed saying whatever he has to to keep investors from losing their shit with impatience over a startup that's been working for over a decade without having transformed the world yet-- they've grown too accustomed to Dropbox's and Facebooks. If he let them speculate wildly without occasionally throwing them a bone, he would end up with a feedback cycle of bad press for no reason-- an analyst would downgrade Tesla for [some reason], a hundred articles would be written with titles like "Is this the end of Tesla?", and the cycle repeats. This is what he's keeping at bay while they prepare their grand slam.

FireBeyond 11y ago

"Given where they've gone from 2009 to 2016, you think that between now and 2020 it's all going to collapse in on itself, the Model 3 will reveal itself to be a poorly designed flop that few will buy, or they'll find themselves unable to actually manufacture it? Where exactly are you seeing evidence of a downward trend or a failure waiting to happen?" Whereas in contrast you're considering evidence of Tesla's somewhat success in the high end market as an ironclad guarantee that it's not possible that the 3 could be a flop in a -vastly- different market.

aerovistae 11y ago
I think "somewhat success" is a vast understatement as they're outselling all competing vehicles. That would be impressive for a new ICE manufacturer, but to have successfully created the technical and team infrastructure to make this possible is astonishing-- the service stations across the nation, a massive supercharging network, home delivery service nationally, etc. I personally do believe their success is assured-- their success thus far combined with Elon's past and simultaneous other accomplishments seem to me as the very definition of ironclad evidence that this man achieves what he sets out to do. I just can't picture headlines in 5 years reading "How the man who landed the first rockets failed the auto industry." It just seems far-fetched. And I don't think the market is as vastly different as you believe. At both levels you have people with money who want something shiny. And there are more people with $40k than there are people with $90k. Time will tell.

pfarnsworth 11y ago

It sounds like you are a fanboi and have no idea how to read a financial statement. That's fine, you're allowed to believe whatever you want. It also sounds like you didn't read what I wrote carefully though, you just immediately white-knighted for poor Elon Musk when someone dared to say that Tesla isn't the greatest company in the world.