3 ms·
How many such decks can be expected to exist? Well, there are 52 possble cuts, including "no cut", giving us 52 possible scenarios the dealer must win. Assumi
by Dove 17y ago
How many such decks can be expected to exist?
Well, there are 52 possble cuts, including "no cut", giving us 52 possible scenarios the dealer must win. Assuming naively that winning one scenario does not affect the odds of winning another scenario, the probability of the dealer winning all scenarios is (1/n)^52, where n is the number of players. There are 51! possible decks (given that the deck is cyclic under cutting and we may hence assume the first card).
Thus a naive expectation for the number of ice cold decks that exist for any n is 51!/n^52. This has the following values:
2 3.44e50
3 2.40e41
4 7.64e34
5 6.98e29
6 5.33e25
7 1.76e22
8 1.69e19
9 3.71e16
...
10 1.55e14
11 1.09e12
12 1.18e10
13 1.84e8
14 3.90e6
15 1.08e5
16 3.77e4
17 1.61e2
18 8.25
19 0.49
20 3.44e-2
21 2.72e-3
22 2.42e-4
So the odds of such a deck existing are very strongly in our favor in all of the non-silly cases. Indeed, it appears likely that we can get almost all of the silly cases, too, especially if that assumption about the scenarios being independent was wrong.
Finding them, now . . . that might be more work.