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This is great news but somehow presented in a negative tone. The slow (4000 year duration) PETM release had no lag before temperature increased. Our release is
by Nutmog 11y ago
This is great news but somehow presented in a negative tone. The slow (4000 year duration) PETM release had no lag before temperature increased. Our release is much faster and according to the article, the faster the release, the greater the lag. So we should expect to see a lag. I wonder how long - hopefully on the order of magnitude of the duration of the last release - 1000s of years or perhaps the current release - 100s of years.
The problem with climate change isn't what it might change into, but how fast it happens. It's quite already to have a change slow enough for societies, farmers, migration of species and geoengineering technology to adapt. We don't need enough time for evolutionary adaptation because we've actually got considerable control over our environment, unlike all species before us.
- sbov 11y agoBut if you're not feeling your current effects until 1,000 years in the future you may be completely screwed before you end up doing something about it.
- Nutmog 11y agoWhy would it happening later be more trouble? At best we'd see it coming and have 1000 years to prepare. At worst it'd happen just as suddenly as people already expect it to. In either case, we'll probably have better technology to manage it in 1000 years than we do today.
- sbov 11y agoAt worst we wouldn't do anything for 1,000 years because there's been little effect. In the meantime we've built up another 1,000 years we're going to have to deal with, which might be impossible at that point. In comparison, if we instantly felt the effects we could obviously see we're causing specific problems, and react appropriately. With the lag it's a crapshoot and deniability can creep in.