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Seems safe to predict that unless you're waiting in line on the West Coast on 3/31, you won't be getting the full $7500 tax credit. They've sold about 50k Tesl
by rdl 11y ago
Seems safe to predict that unless you're waiting in line on the West Coast on 3/31, you won't be getting the full $7500 tax credit. They've sold about 50k Teslas so far (Roadster/S/X); the credit goes to 50% for 2 quarters after they hit 200k total vehicles from one manufacturer sold.
I'd be expecting another 50-100k S/X delivered between now and 2017-12-31 when I predict Model 3 will start shipping. Probably every Model 3 shipped in 2018 will be to either an existing Tesla owner, or someone who does an in-person deposit on 3/31. I would be amazed if they don't do 200k units on 4/1 alone.
- gohrt 11y agoWhat's this? Do consumers have to check their purchase ordinal to know whether they get the credit? That's a horribly unfair and overcomplicated tax structure.
- rdl 11y agoThe deposit doesn't even count as purchase, so you don't particularly know. Plus the deposits aren't 100% deliveries -- people ahead of you might drop out. Seems worth sitting outside with an iPad for a few hours in a week to maximize my chances of $7500 vs. $3750 in 2 years, though.
- cowsandmilk 11y agoNo. It is by quarter when purchased, not by ordinal. If they hit 200k in first quarter of 2018, you are fine as long as you purchase during that quarter (or the next I believe). The next two quarters it goes down to 50% and down to 25% for the next two.
- mikeash 11y agoNote that the credit continues at 100% until the end of the quarter after the quarter where the 200,000 mark hits, so there's a bit more of a delay there. Not sure just what that means for the prospects of getting in before.
- rdl 11y agoIs it rolling quarters, or would Tesla be screwing over thousands of people to ship first car on 2017-12-31 vs. 2018-01-01? Maybe they'll be awesome and as soon as they start shipping, allow anyone with a valid deposit to immediately pay the full amount? Or does it go by delivery? Ultimately it's not really worth doing too much over $3750 one-time in 2 years, but I'm still willing to wake up slightly early for it.
- mikeash 11y agoIf US Tesla #200,000 is sold in Q3 2017, then yes, the last date for the full tax credit would be 2017-12-31. They've probably sold around 60-70,000 in the US so far. I think the current rate is around 50,000/year (they project 100,000 in 2016, and the US is roughly 50%). Even if 2017 is a substantial increase, it seems unlikely that they'll hit the 200,000 mark before 2018.
- rdl 11y agoAh! I forgot it was only US sales. Maybe they can shift a little more production to non US markets to ensure they hit 200k US units at the beginning of a quarter.