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On one hand, I really want a Tesla car. On the other hand, I live in a city and take electric busses and trains everywhere. Maybe I'll trade in my 15 year old

by RIMR 11y ago

On one hand, I really want a Tesla car. On the other hand, I live in a city and take electric busses and trains everywhere. Maybe I'll trade in my 15 year old SUV for a Tesla Model 3 when they hit used car lots.

imglorp 11y ago
Consider this guy's opinion. The used Tesla market might not look like it does for other cars. http://syonyk.blogspot.com/2016/03/is-tesla-building-throwaway-cars.html http://syonyk.blogspot.com/2016/03/is-tesla-building-throwaw...
- ethanbond 11y ago
  Somewhat off-topic to your point of "the used car market might not exist like that," but isn't this the direction automobiles have been going since they were invented? In fact, this trend has existed in every piece of technology. It's a tautology: as technology becomes more complex to build, it becomes more complex to rebuild. Of course, a portion of the advancement of a technology should be dedicated to reducing that growth in difficulty – the constant self-inspection being one example. Even if it seems a bit presumptive or shocking now, do we have any reason to believe that this isn't the inevitable future of hyperadvanced cars?
  - ZoeZoeBee 11y ago
    No that is not the direction automobiles have been going since they were invented. Cars unlike many objects are built to last longer today than they were in the previous decades. It used to be people expected 100,000 miles or so out of their vehicle and now its over 200,000 miles. http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2013/03/14/cars-that-can-last-for-250000-miles/#7f1ac04e2ae7 http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2013/03/14/cars-tha... Whether by necessity or choice, U.S. motorists are holding onto their cars for longer than ever, with the age of the average vehicle on the road at a record-high 10.8 years, according to the research company R.L. Polk in Southfield Mich. By comparison, the average life expectancy of a new car in 1930 was a scant 6.75 years. Fortunately, today’s cars are more than up to the task of going the distance.
    - ethanbond 11y ago
      But that's not the argument the article is making. It doesn't actually argue that the Model S won't be able to have a longer lifetime than its predecessors (we don't know because there aren't any old ones). The article says that the lack of DIY maintainability implies that the lifetime will be limited, but DIY maintainability has always been going down and the cost of service has always been going up – yet the lifespan of vehicles has also always been going up. Edit: And as an aside, some of the stuff brought up here is pretty ridiculous sounding. Like the lack of diagnostics sent to the OBD-II.
      - ZoeZoeBee 11y ago
        "Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars" I'm sorry but the article is a lot more than just DIY mechanics... >According to the US DOT, the average age of cars on the road in 2015 was 11.4 years - and this has been steadily increasing over time. So the question shouldn't be, "How easy is it to maintain a Model S in 4 years" - it should be, "Can they be reasonably maintained to survive 20 or 30 years on the road?" It is definitely more difficult to work on a new car than one from the 60s or 70s, and despite that the Average LifeSpan of a Vehicle has increased.
        ethanbond 11y ago
        Right, which is exactly why I'm asking why the Tesla is seen as such an exception. It's definitely a large leap, but it's a whole new architecture for a vehicle. It's more difficult and expensive to work on a new car than old ones, yet the lifespans have been increasing. It's more difficult and expensive to work on a Tesla than a non-Tesla, therefore the lifespan will decrease? This is where I'm confused.
        sokoloff 11y ago
        I think the newer cars are easier in some ways and harder in others. The design commonality, use of common subcomponents, on-board diagnostics (fallible, of course), fuel injection, electronic ignition, and closed-loop ECU controls make a lot of maintenance activities easier. Plug in, pull the codes, replace a part, clear the codes is a lot easier than the old days of diagnosing carburetor issues, changing/adjusting points, etc. Where it's harder is when you need something that is now locked down, but for regular maintenance activities (as opposed to modifications for more power), that is fairly rare in my experience, wrenching on my own cars for about 30 years.
- cowardlydragon 11y ago
  Once there are enough Teslas, there will be aftermarket repair howtos. This is inevitable. I guess you could argue that Tesla will try to do the Apple thing and not support older versions of devices, but 50000$ cars and 500$ phones are different beasts. Generally speaking, highly integrated ICE cars are quickly approaching the complexity of Teslas anyway. On the other hand, a tesla is basically 1-2 motors and a big battery bank. No engines, crankshafts, pistons, sparkplugs, radiators, alternators, exhaust pipes and sensors, catalytic convertors, oil pans... I still have some faith that the fundamental simplification of electric drivetrains will result in longer lived vehicles.
  - imglorp 11y ago
    I'm not sure I agree here. A car is network of serious computing, including proprietary API's, busses, and signed firmware. You might change the tires yourself but you won't be putting a third-party sensor in there. The talk of bricking your car is no joke. See also John Deere giving its farmer customers a hard time about self servicing big tractors. The only question is, does the customer have the right to tinker?
    - zanny 11y ago
      It isn't even a right to tinker. Do you actually own the car - which means you should have the right to do whatever you want to it - or are you borrowing it from the manufacturer? If Tesla keeps their cars as draconian DRMed as they have been, then you never actually own the Tesla in the exact same thought process that you don't own an iphone.
- carlosnunez 11y ago
  Wow. That's crazy. I too agree that these cars should just be leased.

by RIMR 11y ago

imglorp 11y ago

Consider this guy's opinion. The used Tesla market might not look like it does for other cars. http://syonyk.blogspot.com/2016/03/is-tesla-building-throwaway-cars.html http://syonyk.blogspot.com/2016/03/is-tesla-building-throwaw...

ethanbond 11y ago
Somewhat off-topic to your point of "the used car market might not exist like that," but isn't this the direction automobiles have been going since they were invented? In fact, this trend has existed in every piece of technology. It's a tautology: as technology becomes more complex to build, it becomes more complex to rebuild. Of course, a portion of the advancement of a technology should be dedicated to reducing that growth in difficulty – the constant self-inspection being one example. Even if it seems a bit presumptive or shocking now, do we have any reason to believe that this isn't the inevitable future of hyperadvanced cars?
- ZoeZoeBee 11y ago
  No that is not the direction automobiles have been going since they were invented. Cars unlike many objects are built to last longer today than they were in the previous decades. It used to be people expected 100,000 miles or so out of their vehicle and now its over 200,000 miles. http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2013/03/14/cars-that-can-last-for-250000-miles/#7f1ac04e2ae7 http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2013/03/14/cars-tha... Whether by necessity or choice, U.S. motorists are holding onto their cars for longer than ever, with the age of the average vehicle on the road at a record-high 10.8 years, according to the research company R.L. Polk in Southfield Mich. By comparison, the average life expectancy of a new car in 1930 was a scant 6.75 years. Fortunately, today’s cars are more than up to the task of going the distance.
  - ethanbond 11y ago
    But that's not the argument the article is making. It doesn't actually argue that the Model S won't be able to have a longer lifetime than its predecessors (we don't know because there aren't any old ones). The article says that the lack of DIY maintainability implies that the lifetime will be limited, but DIY maintainability has always been going down and the cost of service has always been going up – yet the lifespan of vehicles has also always been going up. Edit: And as an aside, some of the stuff brought up here is pretty ridiculous sounding. Like the lack of diagnostics sent to the OBD-II.
    - ZoeZoeBee 11y ago
      "Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars" I'm sorry but the article is a lot more than just DIY mechanics... >According to the US DOT, the average age of cars on the road in 2015 was 11.4 years - and this has been steadily increasing over time. So the question shouldn't be, "How easy is it to maintain a Model S in 4 years" - it should be, "Can they be reasonably maintained to survive 20 or 30 years on the road?" It is definitely more difficult to work on a new car than one from the 60s or 70s, and despite that the Average LifeSpan of a Vehicle has increased.
      - ethanbond 11y ago
        Right, which is exactly why I'm asking why the Tesla is seen as such an exception. It's definitely a large leap, but it's a whole new architecture for a vehicle. It's more difficult and expensive to work on a new car than old ones, yet the lifespans have been increasing. It's more difficult and expensive to work on a Tesla than a non-Tesla, therefore the lifespan will decrease? This is where I'm confused.
      - sokoloff 11y ago
        I think the newer cars are easier in some ways and harder in others. The design commonality, use of common subcomponents, on-board diagnostics (fallible, of course), fuel injection, electronic ignition, and closed-loop ECU controls make a lot of maintenance activities easier. Plug in, pull the codes, replace a part, clear the codes is a lot easier than the old days of diagnosing carburetor issues, changing/adjusting points, etc. Where it's harder is when you need something that is now locked down, but for regular maintenance activities (as opposed to modifications for more power), that is fairly rare in my experience, wrenching on my own cars for about 30 years.
cowardlydragon 11y ago
Once there are enough Teslas, there will be aftermarket repair howtos. This is inevitable. I guess you could argue that Tesla will try to do the Apple thing and not support older versions of devices, but 50000$ cars and 500$ phones are different beasts. Generally speaking, highly integrated ICE cars are quickly approaching the complexity of Teslas anyway. On the other hand, a tesla is basically 1-2 motors and a big battery bank. No engines, crankshafts, pistons, sparkplugs, radiators, alternators, exhaust pipes and sensors, catalytic convertors, oil pans... I still have some faith that the fundamental simplification of electric drivetrains will result in longer lived vehicles.
- imglorp 11y ago
  I'm not sure I agree here. A car is network of serious computing, including proprietary API's, busses, and signed firmware. You might change the tires yourself but you won't be putting a third-party sensor in there. The talk of bricking your car is no joke. See also John Deere giving its farmer customers a hard time about self servicing big tractors. The only question is, does the customer have the right to tinker?
  - zanny 11y ago
    It isn't even a right to tinker. Do you actually own the car - which means you should have the right to do whatever you want to it - or are you borrowing it from the manufacturer? If Tesla keeps their cars as draconian DRMed as they have been, then you never actually own the Tesla in the exact same thought process that you don't own an iphone.
carlosnunez 11y ago
Wow. That's crazy. I too agree that these cars should just be leased.