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Predictions seem to be consistently wrong, or at least random. We don't have flying cars. My mother was told in the 30's that there would be movies in the hom
by mchahn 11y ago
Predictions seem to be consistently wrong, or at least random. We don't have flying cars. My mother was told in the 30's that there would be movies in the home in 80's. She really hoped her eyesight would be good enough to see the TV at that age.
I think if anyone would actually be good at predictions they could somehow take advantage of that. Maybe in the stock market?
- jfoutz 11y agoThink about weather forecasts. If you want to know if it'll rain on this day next year, you can look at historical data, and make a guess. If you want to know if it'll rain tomorrow, the forecast is really good. Technically, predictions are just made up, forecasts have some model behind them. but the notion of near vs far is helpful. Back then, there really wasn't any hope of beating a human at go. We were in a position of not knowing what we don't know. As we get better at it, the upper and lower bounds can be reevaluated. A nice comparison is self driving cars. 20 years ago, the answer would be a long time, without really complicated road infrastructure. Like magnets embedded in highways. But once the DARPA grand challenge fell, we were able to revise the time down dramatically. Alphabet is saying 30 years for perfect in all conditions. But as we understand and revise the problem, we can get pretty good highway drivers right now. They'll steadily improve handling more and more adverse situations. so the predictions can be revised. Far flung predictions are cultural aspirations. As we understand, we improve or abandon that prediction.
- wolfgke 11y ago> We don't have flying cars. There are flying cars - they are called "helicopters": http://xkcd.com/1623/ http://xkcd.com/1623/