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The "deadly valley" is very real and it won't go away. It can be sidestepped by taking human drivers out of the picture entirely. Imagine what would be involve

The "deadly valley" is very real and it won't go away. It can be sidestepped by taking human drivers out of the picture entirely. Imagine what would be involved in doing that. Some analysts think that trucking would be an easy foot in the door for this technology. Freeways present fewer challenges in driving. There could even be dedicated lanes for autonomous trucks. The problem is political. A lot of peoples' livelihood depends on trucking. Those people won't go quietly into the night. Uber and Lyft want to use this technology for commercial passenger service. They've already disrupted taxis. Dropping drivers would be less of a political hurdle for them. I imagine Uber setting up driverless cars in pool routes like buses. Ride services are also the best hope for completely driver-free tech because no one is going to want to assume driving liability as a passenger. Completely driverless is where this technology needs to go and I think that taxi/ride-service replacement is the lever. Once that works you'll see people buying cars that don't let you drive.

userbinator 11y ago
I think you will see pilotless planes long before completely driverless cars gain any popularity, because of the problem of human-automation handoff latency. In planes, when the autopilot disconnects because of some problem there's usually plenty of warning (including a sound like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XxEFFX586k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XxEFFX586k ) and the pilot(s) have some time, seconds or more, to assess the situation and take control. Despite how fast planes fly, the rules of separation and general vastness of airspace make it much easier to smoothly transition control. It may not sound like much time, but consider that in a self-driving car, the latency required to avoid a collision could be in the range of milliseconds. By the time the driver realises (s)he has to take control, it's too late.
- staircasebug 11y ago
  Agreed on the latency with the driver. Let's also think about the diminishing skills that we'll experience once automation takes over the majority of our driving. Imagine taking 3-4 weeks off from driving and then being asked to take the wheel under a difficult circumstance.
  - CPLX 11y ago
    > Imagine taking 3-4 weeks off from driving and then being asked to take the wheel under a difficult circumstance. This is also called "living in New York"
- golemotron 11y ago
  I agree. The only way around this is dedicated lanes and areas for driverless cars. The biggest problem driverless cars have is other human drivers.
- greggarious 11y ago
  You already basically have them. The pilot mostly just gets involved in emergencies at this point. I'd assume we may see something similar with large buses soon... large bus with an operator paid more to keep attention than "drive", taking passengers on longish routes (Ex: LA to SF), with local metro rail handling second leg, and automated small passenger cars and/or walking closing last gap.

userbinator 11y ago

I think you will see pilotless planes long before completely driverless cars gain any popularity, because of the problem of human-automation handoff latency. In planes, when the autopilot disconnects because of some problem there's usually plenty of warning (including a sound like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XxEFFX586k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XxEFFX586k ) and the pilot(s) have some time, seconds or more, to assess the situation and take control. Despite how fast planes fly, the rules of separation and general vastness of airspace make it much easier to smoothly transition control. It may not sound like much time, but consider that in a self-driving car, the latency required to avoid a collision could be in the range of milliseconds. By the time the driver realises (s)he has to take control, it's too late.

staircasebug 11y ago
Agreed on the latency with the driver. Let's also think about the diminishing skills that we'll experience once automation takes over the majority of our driving. Imagine taking 3-4 weeks off from driving and then being asked to take the wheel under a difficult circumstance.
- CPLX 11y ago
  > Imagine taking 3-4 weeks off from driving and then being asked to take the wheel under a difficult circumstance. This is also called "living in New York"
golemotron 11y ago
I agree. The only way around this is dedicated lanes and areas for driverless cars. The biggest problem driverless cars have is other human drivers.
greggarious 11y ago
You already basically have them. The pilot mostly just gets involved in emergencies at this point. I'd assume we may see something similar with large buses soon... large bus with an operator paid more to keep attention than "drive", taking passengers on longish routes (Ex: LA to SF), with local metro rail handling second leg, and automated small passenger cars and/or walking closing last gap.