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Hinton has a very balanced perspective. His comments on the short and medium term dangers of AI are interesting. He considers the main risks to come from poli

Hinton has a very balanced perspective. His comments on the short and medium term dangers of AI are interesting. He considers the main risks to come from politics, which sounds right to me -- deliberate (mis)use of AI, not drama intrinsic to AI self-improvement. Look at the current FBI vs. Apple mess, and our drone program(s). His comments on his own professional experience, toward the end, are also very interesting -- not the sort of discussion one usually sees from senior scientists.

pinouchon 11y ago
Hinton seems to refuse to talk about a timeline longer than 5 years, and 5 years seems to short to have any kind of human-level AI, let alone a self improving superintelligence. The real danger lies when we approach the human-level threshold.
- chubot 11y ago
  I thought this quote was pretty hilarious (unintentionally): [on rendering humanity obsolete] A: It’s hard to predict beyond five years. I’m pretty confident it won’t happen in the next five years, and I’m fairly confident that it won’t be something I’m going to have to deal with. But it’s something people should definitely be thinking about. OK kids, were making AI -- deal with it!!! FWIW I agree with him on the time frame -- we're in another phase where AI successes have led to overoptimism. The human brain will humble us in the next decade....
- marvin 11y ago
  Good point. I'm not aware of any high-profile technologist or commentator that claims self-improving, superhuman artificial intelligence is a likely risk this decade. This doesn't imply that self-improving or superhuman AI will never be a risk. I get the sense that some machine learning/AI researchers downplay this long-term concern, while at the same time misattributing discussons around AI safety as criticism of the current approach to AI. It must be possible to have two thoughts in our heads at once. Machine learning is making massive strides at the moment, and we must use this for all the benefit it's worth while keeping an eye on the current risks that AI represents -- for instance job loss and displacement, misuse by governments for e.g. surveillance purposes and so on. But it's probably also a good idea to keep one eye on the horizon as well, because things are likely to happen pretty quickly if the state of the art advances further. It's best to be prepared for this eventuality well in advance, because successful navigation of a potential risk scenario there requires the cooperation of a lot of people. And people are slow to change their expectations. Don't get me wrong, I greatly appreciate the current discussions around this subject. There are a lot of good points being made.

pinouchon 11y ago

Hinton seems to refuse to talk about a timeline longer than 5 years, and 5 years seems to short to have any kind of human-level AI, let alone a self improving superintelligence. The real danger lies when we approach the human-level threshold.

chubot 11y ago
I thought this quote was pretty hilarious (unintentionally): [on rendering humanity obsolete] A: It’s hard to predict beyond five years. I’m pretty confident it won’t happen in the next five years, and I’m fairly confident that it won’t be something I’m going to have to deal with. But it’s something people should definitely be thinking about. OK kids, were making AI -- deal with it!!! FWIW I agree with him on the time frame -- we're in another phase where AI successes have led to overoptimism. The human brain will humble us in the next decade....
marvin 11y ago
Good point. I'm not aware of any high-profile technologist or commentator that claims self-improving, superhuman artificial intelligence is a likely risk this decade. This doesn't imply that self-improving or superhuman AI will never be a risk. I get the sense that some machine learning/AI researchers downplay this long-term concern, while at the same time misattributing discussons around AI safety as criticism of the current approach to AI. It must be possible to have two thoughts in our heads at once. Machine learning is making massive strides at the moment, and we must use this for all the benefit it's worth while keeping an eye on the current risks that AI represents -- for instance job loss and displacement, misuse by governments for e.g. surveillance purposes and so on. But it's probably also a good idea to keep one eye on the horizon as well, because things are likely to happen pretty quickly if the state of the art advances further. It's best to be prepared for this eventuality well in advance, because successful navigation of a potential risk scenario there requires the cooperation of a lot of people. And people are slow to change their expectations. Don't get me wrong, I greatly appreciate the current discussions around this subject. There are a lot of good points being made.