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http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/google-selfdriving-car-will-be-ready-soon-for-some-in-decades-for-others http://spectrum.ie

by itg 11y ago

http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/google-selfdriving-car-will-be-ready-soon-for-some-in-decades-for-others http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self... What they said is that it may be restricted to certain scenarios initially. A go anywhere self driving car may take longer.

ghaff 11y ago
A lot of people here jump on the robo-taxi idea whenever the topic of autonomous vehicles come up. I think it's fair to say that most of the people deeply familiar with the issues peg that as being decades out. On the other hand, we seem to be very close to very good assistive driving systems and pretty close to (at least the potential to) turn over control to those systems under at least certain types of highway driving. That's actually a very desirable thing given the number of highway accidents caused by driver fatigue and inattentively plowing into the car ahead. It just doesn't lead to all the visions of cars-on-demand etc. that get people all excited.
- mdorazio 11y ago
  Not so. I work in the industry and most people agree that first-gen robotaxis will hit the streets of LA and SV around 2020. Obviously these locations are ideal for the use case since they have nice weather, flat terrain, and generally decent roads. It will be years later that a robotaxi picks you up on a snowy street in Manhattan, but this is a situation where incremental launches and improvements make sense - some markets are easier than others, so you can launch to those markets where autonomous is good enough.
  - ktRolster 11y ago
    As someone who works in the industry, can you explain the good reasons for choosing 2020 as the estimate? (As opposed to this: https://xkcd.com/678/ https://xkcd.com/678/ or just hopeful thinking)
    - lrem 11y ago
      As someone who works in a big company, for some reason every long-term plan is touted this-2020 and that-2020. It's just easier to sell as a slogan and may influence real deadlines. That is until probably 2018, when everything will get named those-2025.
      - ghaff 11y ago
        Five years out is roughly the confluence between "close enough to be interesting" with "of course, it's not quite ready yet."
visarga 11y ago
That would work out nice for the current generation of professional drivers and there will be enough warning time for the future drivers so they can be OK when the moment comes.

by itg 11y ago

ghaff 11y ago

A lot of people here jump on the robo-taxi idea whenever the topic of autonomous vehicles come up. I think it's fair to say that most of the people deeply familiar with the issues peg that as being decades out. On the other hand, we seem to be very close to very good assistive driving systems and pretty close to (at least the potential to) turn over control to those systems under at least certain types of highway driving. That's actually a very desirable thing given the number of highway accidents caused by driver fatigue and inattentively plowing into the car ahead. It just doesn't lead to all the visions of cars-on-demand etc. that get people all excited.

mdorazio 11y ago
Not so. I work in the industry and most people agree that first-gen robotaxis will hit the streets of LA and SV around 2020. Obviously these locations are ideal for the use case since they have nice weather, flat terrain, and generally decent roads. It will be years later that a robotaxi picks you up on a snowy street in Manhattan, but this is a situation where incremental launches and improvements make sense - some markets are easier than others, so you can launch to those markets where autonomous is good enough.
- ktRolster 11y ago
  As someone who works in the industry, can you explain the good reasons for choosing 2020 as the estimate? (As opposed to this: https://xkcd.com/678/ https://xkcd.com/678/ or just hopeful thinking)
  - lrem 11y ago
    As someone who works in a big company, for some reason every long-term plan is touted this-2020 and that-2020. It's just easier to sell as a slogan and may influence real deadlines. That is until probably 2018, when everything will get named those-2025.
    - ghaff 11y ago
      Five years out is roughly the confluence between "close enough to be interesting" with "of course, it's not quite ready yet."

visarga 11y ago

That would work out nice for the current generation of professional drivers and there will be enough warning time for the future drivers so they can be OK when the moment comes.