5 ms·
One of Ray Kurzweil's predictions is that the exponential growth of technology is really going to surprise a lot of people when we start hitting the hockey grow
by sixQuarks 11y ago
One of Ray Kurzweil's predictions is that the exponential growth of technology is really going to surprise a lot of people when we start hitting the hockey growth phase. What looks to be 20 years out may be getting solved in 2 or 3 years, or even sooner. Perhaps google is making such progress in AI, they sense the public may turn against them if they have both AI and robots. I'm probably wrong, but just a theory. Kurzweil does work for Google by the way.
- maaku 11y agoThe thing about smooth exponentials is that "hocky stick growth" is always 5-10 years away.
- Houshalter 11y agoReal world exponentials are not necessarily smooth.
- maaku 11y agoBut if it is actually an exponential than the upswing is aberrational.
- seizethecheese 11y agoAlternatively, you are always hitting the hockey-stick of 5-10 years ago.
- Terr_ 11y agoWhile Kurzweil generates predictions which are bold and falsifiable, there's an unfortunate tendency: The bold ones are not falsifiable, and the falsifiable ones are not bold.
- throwaway2048 11y agoevery phase of an exponential curve is hockey stick shaped, thats what defines it as a thing.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]