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Scary parallel here with the recent jeff dean talk about NN. He claims he won't let his team touch any 'research task' that takes more than a week, and prefers

Scary parallel here with the recent jeff dean talk about NN. He claims he won't let his team touch any 'research task' that takes more than a week, and prefers to stick to experiments that take under a day to set up and run -- that there's so much low-hanging fruit that every ML project should be simple. Very very scary if tech that most of us still haven't touched is also in a sense routine. I hope I'm misquoting him. But my takeaway is that between manually coding processes that could be solved with ML & doing infrastructure profiling, most devs are spending half their time fixing problems that are 'routine' at the big three.

savanaly 11y ago
>Very very scary if tech that most of us still haven't touched is also in a sense routine. Isn't that more properly regarded as exciting than scary? The long term benefits to automation have rarely failed to outweigh the temporary costs. I would personally be very happy if my own current job- software developer- were somehow automated out of existence. Not only would it allow me to put my money where my mouth is regarding praising automation but it would mean huge gains for the human race.
- FilterSweep 11y ago
  > but it would mean huge gains for the human race. This entirely depends on the model the human race is running off of. With the current state of mass-centralization in tech (see, again, the big 3), you will never get to experience such gains. In fact, you would quickly grow dependent on someone else to feed and shelter you, considering you can no longer provide a benefit to society that puts food on the table. In fact, most people wouldn't provide value anymore. > The long term benefits to automation have rarely failed to outweigh the temporary costs. For some people, yes. You are correct when it comes to the numbers. GDP increases. A nation has more "wealth" to work with altogether. But the other side of the coin is that wealth disparity becomes more extreme. Big however - If we ran off a decentralized model - arguably the way the Web was originally intended, I could see how the human race would be placed in an unprecedented position for future growth, and humanity would really thrive. Granted, regarding the current state as ""exciting"" boils down to what you value, I guess. When (not if) I automate myself out of existence, I'm sure as hell not telling anyone I did it.
  - nostrademons 11y ago
    The assumption that the "current model" (I assume you mean capitalism) makes is that people, when placed in a position where they no longer provide a benefit to society and yet must in order to put food on the table, will find a way to provide a benefit to society. In my experience, this is true over longer (1-2 year) timescales, even if it's not obvious how at the outset. Most people, when made redundant, find new ways to make themselves relevant. The process isn't exactly pleasant, but the outcome often results in a lot more lucrative and fulfilling career than they had before.
    - gutnor 11y ago
      > but the outcome often results in a lot more lucrative and fulfilling career than they had before Not sure about that, that's not at all my experience coming from a poor area which has gone through several mass-scale outsourcing. ( i.e. a whole vertical slice of the economy just moves away ) You need an set of positive circumstances in order to make yourself relevant again. Access to appropriate education/resources, capability to identify a new opportunity, capacity to actually take it ( i.e. money, flexibility, ... ) If you miss any of that, you just enter a vicious circle that drags you down. Over the course of a generation, what you say is true. Most of the youth has moved away from that poor area I came from, including me.
      - nostrademons 11y ago
        What are outcomes like for the people that did move away and retrain? A key point of the "redundant workers will find new work" hypothesis is that they make rational decisions to find & take advantage of opportunities elsewhere. These rational decisions can often be emotionally wrenching - like giving up your home, your identity, and your social support network - but I'm curious what happens to the folks who are willing to make those decisions.
        ZoeZoeBee 11y ago
        You keep using the word willing instead of the word you should be using capable. Case in point old manufacturing towns like Detroit and Flint where the literacy rate hovers around 50% graduation rates in the 20s and the likelihood that a graduate from the school district did not receive the same education as someone from a functioning school district(Standardized Tests Provide this Measure). So how do these people "will" their way past illiteracy, plummeting home values (Makes it quite difficult to sell and start somewhere new), and the need to suddenly compete with all of their former co-workers? Economic data suggests these people simply become "Disassociated" from the Labor Force and are no longer counted as unemployed whether they found employment or not.
- iamcurious 11y ago
  It is scary and exciting. It drastically changes the socioeconomic landscape and it is yet to be seen how (if?) we will adapt.
- ghurtado 11y ago
  > I would personally be very happy if my own current job- software developer- were somehow automated out of existence. Considering that my own personal theory is that software developer (also my profession) is the last job that will ever be automated (there will have to be one last person that writes software to run "the robots" before "the robots" write all their software), I can't say that I share your excitement at this milestone. But then again, maybe it's simply evolution and nothing to fear, since we are as temporary in the universe as the last species we evolved from.
mziel 11y ago
Could you post a link to this talk?
- awinter-py 11y ago
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSaZGT4-6EY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSaZGT4-6EY Tech Talk with Jeff Dean at Campus Seoul 'deep learning for building intelligent computer systems'

savanaly 11y ago

>Very very scary if tech that most of us still haven't touched is also in a sense routine. Isn't that more properly regarded as exciting than scary? The long term benefits to automation have rarely failed to outweigh the temporary costs. I would personally be very happy if my own current job- software developer- were somehow automated out of existence. Not only would it allow me to put my money where my mouth is regarding praising automation but it would mean huge gains for the human race.

FilterSweep 11y ago
> but it would mean huge gains for the human race. This entirely depends on the model the human race is running off of. With the current state of mass-centralization in tech (see, again, the big 3), you will never get to experience such gains. In fact, you would quickly grow dependent on someone else to feed and shelter you, considering you can no longer provide a benefit to society that puts food on the table. In fact, most people wouldn't provide value anymore. > The long term benefits to automation have rarely failed to outweigh the temporary costs. For some people, yes. You are correct when it comes to the numbers. GDP increases. A nation has more "wealth" to work with altogether. But the other side of the coin is that wealth disparity becomes more extreme. Big however - If we ran off a decentralized model - arguably the way the Web was originally intended, I could see how the human race would be placed in an unprecedented position for future growth, and humanity would really thrive. Granted, regarding the current state as ""exciting"" boils down to what you value, I guess. When (not if) I automate myself out of existence, I'm sure as hell not telling anyone I did it.
- nostrademons 11y ago
  The assumption that the "current model" (I assume you mean capitalism) makes is that people, when placed in a position where they no longer provide a benefit to society and yet must in order to put food on the table, will find a way to provide a benefit to society. In my experience, this is true over longer (1-2 year) timescales, even if it's not obvious how at the outset. Most people, when made redundant, find new ways to make themselves relevant. The process isn't exactly pleasant, but the outcome often results in a lot more lucrative and fulfilling career than they had before.
  - gutnor 11y ago
    > but the outcome often results in a lot more lucrative and fulfilling career than they had before Not sure about that, that's not at all my experience coming from a poor area which has gone through several mass-scale outsourcing. ( i.e. a whole vertical slice of the economy just moves away ) You need an set of positive circumstances in order to make yourself relevant again. Access to appropriate education/resources, capability to identify a new opportunity, capacity to actually take it ( i.e. money, flexibility, ... ) If you miss any of that, you just enter a vicious circle that drags you down. Over the course of a generation, what you say is true. Most of the youth has moved away from that poor area I came from, including me.
    - nostrademons 11y ago
      What are outcomes like for the people that did move away and retrain? A key point of the "redundant workers will find new work" hypothesis is that they make rational decisions to find & take advantage of opportunities elsewhere. These rational decisions can often be emotionally wrenching - like giving up your home, your identity, and your social support network - but I'm curious what happens to the folks who are willing to make those decisions.
      - ZoeZoeBee 11y ago
        You keep using the word willing instead of the word you should be using capable. Case in point old manufacturing towns like Detroit and Flint where the literacy rate hovers around 50% graduation rates in the 20s and the likelihood that a graduate from the school district did not receive the same education as someone from a functioning school district(Standardized Tests Provide this Measure). So how do these people "will" their way past illiteracy, plummeting home values (Makes it quite difficult to sell and start somewhere new), and the need to suddenly compete with all of their former co-workers? Economic data suggests these people simply become "Disassociated" from the Labor Force and are no longer counted as unemployed whether they found employment or not.
iamcurious 11y ago
It is scary and exciting. It drastically changes the socioeconomic landscape and it is yet to be seen how (if?) we will adapt.
ghurtado 11y ago
> I would personally be very happy if my own current job- software developer- were somehow automated out of existence. Considering that my own personal theory is that software developer (also my profession) is the last job that will ever be automated (there will have to be one last person that writes software to run "the robots" before "the robots" write all their software), I can't say that I share your excitement at this milestone. But then again, maybe it's simply evolution and nothing to fear, since we are as temporary in the universe as the last species we evolved from.

mziel 11y ago

Could you post a link to this talk?

awinter-py 11y ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSaZGT4-6EY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSaZGT4-6EY Tech Talk with Jeff Dean at Campus Seoul 'deep learning for building intelligent computer systems'