>We have a jar with 9000 blue marbles and 1000 white marbles. We reach in, blindly, 87 times. What is the expectation that we have drawn 87 blue marbles? >We e

>We have a jar with 9000 blue marbles and 1000 white marbles. We reach in, blindly, 87 times. What is the expectation that we have drawn 87 blue marbles? >We expect this one time in ten thousand. When we observe this in real life, we ordinarily suspect that the procedure is flawed in some way, rather than pure luck. Doesn't that presume equal distribution? What if all the white marbles are at the bottom of the jar? Or stacked on one side? Just like me wondering about how many woman directed films in the 1950s, I think that there may be painful numbers of skews and presumptions that'd affect the final result. (although - mea culpa - yeah I was very lazy with that original comment)